Recent frequent outbreaks of geopolitical tensions are profoundly altering the operational logic of the global precious metals market. ZFX Shanhai Securities indicated that the recurring regional instabilities in January have prompted market participants to conduct a comprehensive reassessment of gold's future trajectory, steering its trend from the original baseline expectations towards an extremely bullish scenario. In contrast, the silver market has shown signs of fatigue following a previous speculative surge, with a marginal loosening in fundamentals suggesting investors should currently adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Regarding the overall performance of commodities, ZFX Shanhai Securities believes that despite a significant increase in market volatility, investor enthusiasm for allocating to the metals and mining sectors remains undiminished. From a fundamental perspective, gold and copper are viewed as the preferred choices for commodity allocation this year. This热度 stems from the叠加 of multiple favorable factors, including growth momentum in emerging markets, the macroeconomic backdrop of globalization reversal, and the intensification of de-dollarization trends. ZFX Shanhai Securities stated that these structural factors provide strong support for precious metals, enabling gold prices to quickly establish solid bottom support ranges after each technical correction.
Concerning the price levels watched by the market, ZFX Shanhai Securities believes gold possesses substantial upside potential under an extreme bull market scenario. A regression model based on central bank gold purchasing demand, ETF fund flows, and US Treasury real yields indicates that if investment demand remains persistently high, the gold price could challenge $6,500 by the end of this year and approach the $8,600 level by the end of 2027. Previously, due to situations in regions like Venezuela and Greenland, coupled with concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence, geopolitical risks have clearly tilted towards the upside.
In the silver sector, its safe-haven attributes are considered to have weakened recently. As the peak period for global photovoltaic installations subsides, the balance between industrial physical demand and supply for silver is becoming looser. Between December and January, excessive options trading and retail speculation, while having once pushed silver prices higher, also exhausted its near-term upside potential. The剧烈 volatility has damaged silver's reputation within asset allocations. ZFX Shanhai Securities stated that, considering the gold-silver ratio and physical supply-demand dynamics, the current investment value proposition of silver is weaker than that of gold. Investors should closely monitor changes in market liquidity and cautiously navigate the current adjustment phase.