On Monday after the market opened, influenced by the easing of the US-Iran situation, market risk appetite returned, with Shanghai silver futures surging in a straight line and subsequently maintaining high-level volatility, with an intraday maximum increase exceeding 8%. From a news perspective, US President Trump posted on social media on the 14th, stating that the US-Iran agreement is "now complete" and the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. According to Iranian media reports on the 15th, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement in the early hours of the day, formally confirming the achievement of a US-Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding. The formal signing ceremony for the US-Iran memorandum of understanding is scheduled to take place on the 19th in Switzerland. Negotiations for a 60-day period will commence after Iran verifies the US's fulfillment of its commitments. Following the escalation of the US-Iran situation last week, a breakthrough has been achieved in the short term. Boosted by sentiment, silver prices may exhibit short-term strength.

Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting from June 15th to 16th. Currently, market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike have reached as high as 88%. It is anticipated that the Bank of Japan will raise the policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%. This interest rate level would set a nearly 31-year high record for Japan and represents a key step in the Bank of Japan's continued tightening of monetary policy following its exit from negative interest rate policy. If the rate hike materializes and triggers a reversal of carry trades, caution is warranted regarding the risk of a silver price correction under expectations of liquidity tightening. Furthermore, at 2 a.m. on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and quarterly economic projections summary. The market consensus expects the rate to remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. However, adjustments to the dot plot and statements from the new Chair will serve as the true directional anchors. If the phrasing "the next step tends to be a rate cut" is removed from the policy statement, it may signal a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance towards easing since 2024, which would also exert downward pressure on silver prices. Caution is advised regarding the sustainability of today's silver price rebound.