Cotton Market Overview Key Market News & Data Futures: As of Friday's close, the cotton 2601 contract stood at 13,835 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (0.62% WoW). Spot prices in Xinjiang rose 23 yuan/ton to 14,896 yuan/ton, with the spot basis (CF01) narrowing by 62 to +1,061. The national weighted average spot price increased 40 yuan/ton to 15,062 yuan/ton, with the basis (CF01) at +1,227 (down 45 WoW).

Internationally, USDA reported net U.S. 2025/26 upland cotton sales at 42,547 tons for Nov 7–13, down 36% WoW, with shipments at 25,673 tons (-17% WoW). Pima cotton sales rose 48% to 2,018 tons. China’s net upland cotton purchases totaled 1,293 tons, with shipments at 2,472 tons.

Domestically, commercial cotton inventories in China reached 468.36 million tons by end-November, up 175.3 million tons MoM (+59.82%) and slightly higher YoY (+0.21%).

Market Analysis Global cotton supply-demand adjustments were minor in USDA’s November report, with 25/26 output and demand both down slightly and ending stocks edging up. U.S. production continued to rise, increasing inventory pressure. Northern Hemisphere harvest pressure persists amid weak textile demand, keeping ICE cotton subdued. However, downside appears limited given low valuations. Domestically, Xinjiang’s harvest nears completion, boosting output expectations. Seasonal inventory buildup and faster sales have eased hedging pressure. Despite weak downstream demand in the off-season, improved spinning margins and manageable inventory prevent severe price declines.

Strategy: Neutral-to-bullish. Watch for buying opportunities in the 05 contract. Tight imports and rising domestic consumption may support prices post-seasonal pressure. Monitor policy changes on cotton target prices.

Risks: Macro/policy shifts, weather in key producing regions.

Sugar Market Overview Key Market News & Data Futures: Sugar 2605 closed at 5,214 yuan/ton (-19 yuan/ton, -0.36% WoW). Guangxi spot prices fell 40 yuan/ton to 5,370 yuan/ton (basis SR05 +156, -21 WoW). Yunnan spot dropped 75 yuan/ton to 5,295 yuan/ton (basis SR05 +81, -56 WoW).

Brazil’s 2025 sugarcane area is estimated at 9.398 million hectares (-0.2% MoM, +1.9% YoY), with output at 697 million tons (-0.4% MoM, -1.4% YoY). Weekly sugar shipments awaiting loading fell 17.14% to 1.5131 million tons.

Domestically, China’s tariff-free raw sugar imports totaled 114,500 tons in early November, with 363,500 tons expected for the month.

Market Analysis Global sugar supply remains surplus, capping price rebounds despite short-term support from Brazil’s accelerated harvest, delayed Thai crushing, and India’s export constraints. Zheng sugar faces ample Guangxi supply but limited downside due to low valuations.

Strategy: Neutral. Monitor fund flows; consolidation likely near lows.

Risks: Macro factors, weather, policies.

Pulp Market Overview Key Market News & Data Futures: Pulp 2605 rose 44 yuan/ton (0.80% WoW) to 5,534 yuan/ton. Shandong’s "Silver Star" softwood pulp spot gained 90 yuan/ton to 5,590 yuan/ton (basis SP05 +56, +46 WoW). Russian needle pulp rose 40 yuan/ton to 5,090 yuan/ton (basis SP05 -444, -4 WoW).

Chile’s Arauco raised December softwood pulp prices by $20/ton to $700/ton.

Domestic port inventories fell 4.89% WoW.

Market Analysis Supply disruptions (e.g., Canada’s Crofton mill closure, Finland’s Rauma mill temporary shutdown) support prices. European demand improved with port stocks down, but China’s paper overcapacity limits pulp buying. Recent inventory declines and expanding paper capacity may stabilize prices.

Strategy: Neutral. Short-covering and supply cuts drove gains, but fundamental recovery is needed for sustained upside. Watch for deliverable contract pressures.

Risks: Overseas pricing shifts, FX volatility.