On March 9, the three major A-share indices opened lower and fluctuated throughout the session. Although losses narrowed somewhat in the afternoon, all indices still closed in negative territory, with growth-oriented stocks facing relatively greater pressure. Trading volume across the two exchanges increased to 2.67 trillion yuan compared to the previous Friday. Over the weekend and into Monday, international oil prices surged significantly, with Brent crude futures briefly surpassing $110 per barrel, reaching a new high since August 2022. Previously highlighted variables requiring attention—Brent crude breaking above $80 and tangible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—have now materialized. The third variable, whether the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts due to rising inflation expectations, is currently being priced in by the market. Escalating conflicts between the US and Iran targeting infrastructure and energy facilities, the nomination of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts, and Kuwait's announcement of precautionary crude production cuts suggest that the oil price surge may evolve from sporadic events into a genuine supply crisis. Coupled with a significant downward revision to US February employment data, indicating downward momentum in the labor market, domestic equities are likely to experience wide fluctuations in March. From an allocation perspective, a neutral to defensive stance is advised, with attention on the defensive value of high-dividend-yield sectors.
On the economic data front, the National Bureau of Statistics released figures on March 9 showing that the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month in February. The Producer Price Index for Industrial Products (PPI) fell 0.9% year-on-year, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while it increased 0.4% month-on-month, maintaining the same growth rate as January. The February price data released dual positive signals of recovering consumer demand and continued easing of industrial price pressures. The year-on-year CPI increase hit a near three-year high, with the core CPI rising to 1.8%, reflecting a rebound in household consumption willingness and stronger recovery momentum in service consumption, supported by the Lunar New Year effect and policy stimuli. The PPI's fifth consecutive month-on-month increase and the sustained narrowing of its year-on-year decline indicate steady demand recovery in the industrial sector. Overall, the mild improvement in price signals creates a favorable environment for maintaining moderately accommodative monetary policy and consolidating the positive trend of economic recovery.
According to reports, due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused by conflict, major oil-producing countries including Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE have reduced output because of insufficient storage capacity. Affected by ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions, international oil prices surged again on the morning of March 9, with the main contracts for both NYMEX WTI crude futures and ICE Brent crude futures breaking above $110 per barrel. The recent escalation of Middle East conflicts has driven a sharp, pulse-like rise in international oil prices, triggering a rapid reassessment of global inflation expectations. However, at this juncture, the long-term impact of the conflict on global inflation expectations warrants close attention. If oil prices remain elevated, the effects may gradually transmit to industrial production costs and consumer prices, potentially imposing substantive constraints on the policy space of central banks worldwide. Future developments in the geopolitical situation and policy responses from major economies to oil prices need to be monitored.
On March 6, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February non-farm payrolls report. Data showed that US non-farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, significantly missing market expectations of an increase of 59,000 and marking a negative reading for the first time since October 2025. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level since December 2025. Additionally, the combined non-farm payroll figures for December 2025 and January 2026 were revised down by 69,000. The substantially weaker-than-expected February non-farm payroll data sends a clear signal of an unexpectedly cooling US labor market. The combination of negative job growth, a rising unemployment rate, and downward revisions to prior data has intensified market concerns about a US economic slowdown. Together with the oil price surge triggered by Middle East tensions, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path have rapidly shifted from "rate cut trades" to "stagflation worries." Subsequent attention should focus on changes in Fed rate cut expectations and their impact on the valuation of long-duration growth assets.
On March 9, the three major A-share indices declined. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.67% at 4096.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.74% to 14067.50 points, the ChiNext Index dropped 0.64% to 3208.58 points, and the STAR 100 Index declined 1.22% to 1561.09 points. Among Shenwan's primary industries, Coal, Conglomerates, and Computers led the gains, rising 2.92%, 2.77%, and 1.61% respectively. Communications, Transportation, and Personal Care led the declines, falling 2.38%, 2.34%, and 2.17% respectively. A total of 1392 stocks advanced, while 3769 declined.
Market turnover amounted to 26708.83 billion yuan, increasing from the previous trading session. The balance of margin lending and short selling settled at 26455.61 billion yuan as of the previous Friday, down from the prior day.