November 12 – The gold market continues to attract strong buying interest, with prices holding firmly above $4,100 per ounce. Despite easing geopolitical tensions in some regions, AusGroup notes that investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains robust. The U.S. Senate's passage of new funding legislation ended the longest government shutdown in history, but lingering market uncertainties continue to support gold prices.

While Congress has temporarily resolved some issues, analysts highlight persistent economic uncertainties that reinforce gold's appeal as a safe asset. The Senate bill now moves to the House for a vote, where smooth passage is expected. AusGroup views this as indicating short-term policy stability, though the underlying economic fundamentals warrant close monitoring. Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, observes that the U.S. government reopening may not coincide with optimal economic conditions. Over the past two months, limited official economic data has been released, while private sector reports point to labor market weakness and sustained inflationary pressures. Fritsch adds that U.S. consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level in three and a half years.

Employment data from private payroll processor ADP shows only 42,000 jobs added in October, signaling labor market softness. Meanwhile, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports over 150,000 layoffs by U.S. employers that month – the highest single-month total in more than two decades. Fritsch suggests such economic indicators could pressure the Federal Reserve to implement more aggressive rate cuts than anticipated, potentially supporting gold prices through 2026. AusGroup forecasts gold may reach $4,200 per ounce within the next year, with silver potentially climbing to $50 per ounce.

Beyond Commerzbank, UBS chief investment office analysts maintain a bullish gold outlook. They note that while the government has reopened, congressional funding only extends through January, leaving some departments vulnerable to future shutdowns without subsequent budget approvals. Additionally, ongoing legal debates surrounding tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) provide further support for gold. AusGroup emphasizes that rising global debt levels are heightening investor concerns about fiscal sustainability and potential inflation or currency devaluation, steadily increasing demand for gold as a store of value.

In summary, AusGroup believes gold maintains long-term appeal amid both geopolitical uncertainty and economic weakness. As global risk conditions continue evolving, gold's status as a safe-haven asset will strengthen further, offering investors reliable wealth preservation.