From "Chips" to "Power": BofA Predicts China's Non-IT AI Infrastructure Investment to Hit ¥800 Billion

Deep News
Nov 03

The AI "computing power race" is fundamentally a "power race," according to Bank of America (BofA), which forecasts explosive growth in non-IT infrastructure investments to support AI operations.

BofA's latest research report highlights that the AI infrastructure investment boom is expanding beyond traditional IT equipment like chips and servers to include power, cooling, and metals—key "non-IT" sectors critical for AI development. By 2030, China's total AI capital expenditure (Capex) is projected to reach ¥2–2.5 trillion, with non-IT infrastructure (such as power, cooling, and metal materials) accounting for one-third of this, creating an ¥800 billion market.

China holds distinct advantages in this AI infrastructure wave, including ample power capacity, industrial electricity prices 30–60% lower than developed markets, dominance in renewable energy supply chains, and a relatively young and robust grid network—laying a solid foundation for AI data center (AIDC) growth.

**AI Competition = Power Competition** As AI model training and inference demands surge, data center energy consumption is skyrocketing. BofA predicts China's data center power usage will grow at an 18% CAGR, rising from 102 TWh in 2024 to 277 TWh by 2030—29% of global data center power consumption. Key drivers include: - **AIDC adoption**: Far higher power draw than traditional data centers. - **High-performance chips**: NVIDIA’s GB200 chip consumes 2.7kW, vastly exceeding the H100’s 700W. - **Server rack density**: Future racks may hit 200kW–600kW power levels.

By 2030, China’s total AI investment is expected to hit ¥2–2.5 trillion, with ¥800 billion focused on non-IT infrastructure. Power systems (generation and transmission) will dominate (38%), followed by metals (12%) and advanced cooling (10%).

**Power Supply: Five Emerging Opportunities** China’s advantages—ample generation capacity, lower industrial tariffs, renewable leadership, and a modern grid—position it strongly for AI-driven power demands. BofA identifies five key investment areas: 1. **Nuclear power**: A stable, clean baseload source ideal for AIDCs. China’s nuclear capacity is projected to grow from 60GW in 2025 to 100GW by 2030, representing 60% of global under-construction capacity. 2. **Power equipment**: Surging demand for transformers amid global grid upgrades and AIDC construction. China’s transformer exports are forecast to grow over 30% in 2025 and 20% in 2026. 3. **Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)**: Critical for stable data center power. AIDC-related BESS installations may hit 55GWh by 2030 (22% CAGR). 4. **Diesel generators**: Emergency backup demand will rise with data center expansion. Large-bore diesel engine sales for data centers could see a 28% CAGR (2024–2027). 5. **AI power systems**: High-voltage DC (HVDC), Panama power supplies, and solid-state transformers will grow as chip power demands escalate.

**Cooling & Materials: AI’s Physical Backbone** Beyond power, efficient cooling and raw materials are pivotal. - **Liquid cooling**: Offers 20–50x better heat transfer than air cooling, saving up to 30% power. China’s liquid cooling market may grow at a 42% CAGR to ¥79 billion by 2030, with penetration rising from 10% to 45%. - **Copper and aluminum**: Copper is vital for signal transmission, power delivery, and thermal management in AIDCs. By 2030, China’s AIDCs may consume 1 million tons of copper (5–6% of national demand) and 695 kilotons of aluminum.

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