According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin market displayed notable structural divergence between October 4 and October 5, with the core conflict centered on the contraction of futures risk exposure and the counter-trend support from spot buying.
A Glassnode "Market Pulse" report revealed this macro situation: although leverage enthusiasm in the derivatives market has cooled, capital inflows at the spot level are providing a bottom buffer for prices, and this divergence signals that market sentiment is shifting from pure leverage-driven dynamics to a more complex process of supply-demand rebalancing.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the deleveraging trend in the derivatives market is clear, with open interest shrinking significantly from $38 billion to $36.6 billion, a reduction of $1.4 billion.
However, this contraction in scale was not accompanied by a complete fading of bullish sentiment. Long financing costs instead climbed from $926,400 to $1.5 million, indicating that demand for bullish perpetual contracts remains strong. Open interest alone is no longer sufficient to fully assess the fragility of positions; a deeper deconstruction must also incorporate leverage levels and collateral conditions.
At the same time, the share of active capital rose within a range of 18.9% to 19.5%. This indicator is based on the three-month time window defined in Glassnode's March 2025 report, using the "realized market cap age range method," which prices coins at their last traded price and resets their age, thereby reflecting changes in the weight of newer coins within the economic structure.
Changes in the supply ratio are equally critical. The supply ratio of short-term holders to long-term holders rose from 13.7% to 14.2%, meaning that for every 100 units of long-term supply, there are approximately 14.2 units of short-term supply.
Glassnode adjusts the average holding time of holder groups based on a 155-day benchmark and excludes exchange balances. The data shows that newer cryptocurrency holder groups are more inclined to sell quickly during periods of higher volatility, and their rising share directly enhances the market's price sensitivity.
Capital flows in the spot market provide validation from another dimension. The cumulative volume change value (the difference between buy-side and sell-side trading volume) reversed from negative $102.8 million to positive $33.2 million.
This improvement in the indicator intuitively reflects strengthening buyer power. Although it cannot directly quantify the scale of capital from new investors, a sustained positive net inflow is a key signal for testing the market's ability to absorb new supply.
It is worth noting that this spot-level support stands in sharp contrast to the shrinking notional size of derivatives, indicating that market participants are using spot purchases to hedge or replace part of their futures exposure, thereby maintaining relative price stability overall.
However, this balance is extremely delicate, because the expansion of the short-term holder group means the potential base for selling pressure is increasing, and any external shock could trigger a rapid exit of these sensitive funds.
Looking ahead, October market data reveals a fragile equilibrium: the shrinking notional size of derivatives reduces the risk of systemic liquidation, but the recent rise in the share of active capital and the continuation of spot market buying behavior make holder reaction sensitivity the largest source of uncertainty.
If spot buying can continue to absorb new supply, market fragility will be effectively alleviated; conversely, if selling pressure re-emerges and holders' profitability deteriorates, the market will face greater downward pressure.
Therefore, the subsequent trend will depend on whether spot demand can truly absorb the selling pressure that short-term holders may release. This is the new round of supply-demand test facing the market after the leverage cycle adjustment.