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Zhuochuang Information Analyst An Guang [Introduction] The decline in PTA export volume in 2025 is mainly due to the commissioning of new PTA production capacity in Turkey and the sluggish Turkish PTA import market. With the cancellation of India's BIS certification, PTA exports began to recover in November 2025. Can the volume rebound again in 2026?

PTA export volume declined for the first time in nearly seven years. PTA exports in 2025 totaled 3.82 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, marking the first annual decline in nearly seven years. However, the volume still remained at the second-highest level in history.

The drop of 600,000 tons in PTA exports in 2025 was primarily due to the delayed recovery of the Indian market and weak demand from Turkey. India's BIS certification, issued by the Bureau of Indian Standards, ensures products comply with Indian national standards. The BIS certification for PTA expired in 2023 and was only canceled in November 2025. From January to October 2025, the BIS requirement limited China's PTA exports to India, as major Chinese PTA producers could not directly export to the Indian market. Although exports to India increased significantly in November and December, it was insufficient to reverse the overall annual decline. In March 2025, Turkey commissioned 1.5 million tons of new PTA capacity. After stable operation of this new capacity, Turkey became self-sufficient in PTA, leading to a sharp drop in imports from China.

Despite the decline, PTA export volume in 2025 remained at the second-highest level historically. This is attributed to China's strong integrated production advantages, which help expand overseas markets, and low domestic processing margins, prompting PTA producers to seek higher profits through exports.

The Indian market is relatively important. From January to October 2025, PTA exports to India were 200,000 tons, down 38% year-on-year. After the cancellation of BIS in late November, exports to India in November and December reached 203,000 tons, exceeding the total for the first ten months. Exports to India in December alone were 133,000 tons, accounting for about 37% of total monthly exports. Without the cancellation of BIS, exports to India in November and December would likely have been only about 40,000 tons, slowing domestic PTA inventory reduction and negatively impacting the PTA market. As a major trading partner, the recovery of the Indian market benefits China's PTA industry.

Outlook: PTA exports face both opportunities and challenges. It is estimated that PTA exports in 2026 will continue to face both opportunities and resistance, with annual export volume expected to remain around 3.8 million tons, showing no significant rebound. While China's integrated production advantages support PTA exports, new overseas capacity and trade barriers pose challenges.

Chinese PTA producers are replacing old capacity with new, further enhancing the industry's cost advantages and supporting exports. The recovery of the Indian market also provides a short-term boost. However, India plans to commission two new PTA plants in 2026, with capacities of 1.25 million tons and 1.5 million tons. The 1.25-million-ton unit may begin trial operations in March–April. Based on the market changes after Turkey's new capacity came online in 2025, it is expected that China's PTA exports to India will decline again after India's new plants start up. Trade barriers against Chinese PTA have reemerged in some countries, and although the impact is limited for now, future developments need monitoring. Additionally, low offers from some overseas buyers have squeezed export margins, reducing the incentive for Chinese producers to export.

In summary, the commissioning schedule of India's new PTA capacity is key. Before the new plants come online, China's PTA exports are expected to remain optimistic. However, after stable operation of the new capacity, exports are likely to decline significantly in the second half of 2026.

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