Abstract

Nokia Oyj will report results Pre-MKt on October 22, 2026; the street anticipates revenue of 5.95 billion US dollars (up 8.31% year over year) and adjusted EPS of 0.07 (up 26.46% year over year), with attention on AI-led order conversion, margin stability, and whether guidance aligns with recent order momentum.

Market Forecast

Consensus for this quarter centers on revenue of 5.95 billion US dollars, implying 8.31% year-over-year growth, and adjusted EPS of 0.07 with 26.46% year-over-year growth; EBIT is projected around 0.52 billion US dollars with 39.14% year-over-year growth. Forecast margin detail is scarce; absent formal guidance, investors are using last quarter’s benchmarks of 45.98% gross margin and 0.04% net margin as reference points while tracking product mix and pricing as the swing factors. The main business is expected to track stable sequential trends with Mobile Infrastructure underpinning scale and pricing discipline, while order activity tied to AI-related workloads remains a key driver of mix. The most promising segment into the print is Network Infrastructure, supported by AI-networking and cloud operator spending; last quarter it generated 2.04 billion US dollars in revenue, and management commentary and recent orders suggest a constructive near-term outlook.

Last Quarter Review

Nokia Oyj delivered revenue of 5.60 billion US dollars (up 8.59% year over year), a gross profit margin of 45.98%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 0.04%, and adjusted EPS of 0.08 (up 80.00% year over year). A notable business highlight was the outperformance in comparable operating profit versus expectations and management’s indication that demand from AI and cloud customers supported the quarter, which helped the shares react positively in premarket trading after the release. Main business performance was led by Mobile Infrastructure at 2.68 billion US dollars and Network Infrastructure at 2.04 billion US dollars, with the company’s overall year-over-year growth of 8.59% providing the demand context for these lines.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business Outlook

Mobile Infrastructure remains the backbone of quarterly revenue. With consensus pointing to 5.95 billion US dollars topline for the group, this franchise’s trajectory will influence whether the company meets or exceeds the consolidated figure. The segment’s outcome will be shaped by regional rollout dynamics, competitive pricing, and delivery phasing; the last quarter’s 45.98% gross margin provides a reference, but near-term deviations will reflect product and geography mix. Investors will monitor whether hardware pricing offsets input and logistics costs, and whether project milestones land early enough in the quarter to support revenue recognition, given that the prior quarter’s consolidated revenue landed 4.42% below the midpoint of external estimates. From a profitability standpoint, the company’s forecasted adjusted EPS of 0.07 (up 26.46% year over year) and EBIT of 0.52 billion US dollars (up 39.14% year over year) suggest operating leverage if mix shifts toward higher-margin systems and software attach. Margin resilience hinges on execution discipline in rollouts, a balanced mix of capacity projects, and the pace of software feature activation in critical customers. The key variable to watch is whether the quarter’s shipments skew to higher-value configurations, which would lift gross margin beyond the last quarter’s baseline, or whether deliveries cluster around lower-margin projects that cap profitability. Management’s prior commentary around AI-driven use cases improving order quality resonates at the Mobile Infrastructure level through demand for advanced radio systems and control-plane features. The opportunity lies in converting orders into recognized revenue without deferrals; the risk lies in any deferral of project acceptance, customer-specific timing slippage, or pricing pressure in competitive tenders. Given the prior quarter’s quarter-on-quarter volatility in net profit (down 97.67% sequentially), investors should assume that earnings cadence can remain lumpy even if the underlying order book is healthy.

Most Promising Segment

Network Infrastructure is positioned as the quarter’s most promising contributor to upside, supported by AI-networking demand and cloud operator investment cycles. Last quarter revenue of 2.04 billion US dollars sets a solid base, and recent commentary and customer actions suggest momentum in IP routing, optical transport, and cloud interconnect. An example is the deployment of AI-ready cloud intelligence capabilities for a major operator, which aligns with the strategic push to embed analytics and automation closer to the network edge and core. Analyst work indicates that AI-related order intake materially accelerated in recent quarters, with references to multi-billion-euro intake that is expected to convert in stages across late 2026 into 2027. That backlog, focused on data-center interconnect and routing, underpins a constructive revenue trajectory for Network Infrastructure, though the pace of conversion is sensitive to lab qualification, capacity readiness at customers, and lead-time constraints in key components. The quarter’s margin outcome within this segment is typically favorable relative to hardware-only deliveries in other lines, especially when software and automation features are activated; therefore, an outsized contribution from Network Infrastructure could lift consolidated margin above last quarter’s reference levels. Execution watch items for this segment include delivery timing for high-capacity routing platforms, customer-ready software activation that unlocks revenue milestones, and any gating in fiber and coherent optics availability that could delay project handover. If shipments and acceptances tilt toward higher-end platforms and bundled software, the path to the projected 0.52 billion US dollars EBIT becomes clearer; if not, the EBIT target still appears reachable but with less headroom versus consensus.

Stock-price Sensitivities This Quarter

The first sensitivity is the conversion rate of AI- and cloud-related orders into recognized revenue and margin this quarter. The company’s consensus revenue estimate implies 8.31% year-over-year growth, and the adjusted EPS estimate of 0.07 implies 26.46% year-over-year growth; if intake conversion accelerates and mix tilts toward Network Infrastructure and software-rich configurations, this can expand margin above the prior quarter’s 45.98% gross level. Conversely, any slippage of project acceptances into subsequent quarters may cap upside even if the backlog continues to build. A second sensitivity is supply and infrastructure readiness across the ecosystem. Management has recently highlighted that sector buildouts—particularly for data centers—would proceed faster absent constraints in key memory components and energy availability. Such external constraints do not eliminate demand, but they can stagger deployment schedules and quarterly revenue recognition patterns. If customers face power or part constraints, revenue could shift right, moderating near-term upside while preserving medium-term visibility. The third sensitivity is earnings cadence itself. Last quarter’s net profit margin was 0.04% and quarter-on-quarter net profit change was down 97.67%, underscoring how quarterly GAAP net income can swing even when operating trends are constructive. Investors therefore may anchor on adjusted EPS and EBIT, where this quarter’s estimates point to 0.07 and 0.52 billion US dollars respectively, and then assess variance through the lens of revenue mix and cost timing. A positive catalyst would be evidence of sustained price discipline in Mobile Infrastructure and higher software attach in Network Infrastructure; a negative would be a repeat of a top-line shortfall versus consensus similar to last quarter’s 4.42% miss.

Analyst Opinions

Across the recent rating actions tracked in the period, the majority view is bullish, with buy calls outnumbering sells by a ratio of 4:1 when considering explicit buy-versus-sell recommendations. Several institutions highlight the inflection in AI-related orders and management’s maintained-to-raised profitability framework as the crux of the constructive stance on the near-to-intermediate outlook. Bank of America Securities reiterates a buy rating and raises its price objective to 16 euros, emphasizing that AI-related order intake has accelerated to approximately 2.8 billion euros in the most recent quarter, with an order run-rate roughly doubling versus the prior pace. The firm argues that as these AI-networking orders convert, earnings growth should accelerate and valuation could converge toward AI-focused networking peers. It also notes that demand timing means the bulk of conversion is expected to span late 2026 and 2027, which supports visibility into the next fiscal year’s earnings trajectory even if quarter-to-quarter recognition remains uneven. Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight view with a 14.00-euro target, citing a favorable setup into the upcoming print based on the expanding backlog in cloud and AI-networking projects and a margin pathway tied to software and higher-value platforms. The firm frames the quarter as a check on order conversion velocity and mix, with particular focus on Network Infrastructure’s contribution to both revenue and gross margin. Their stance is that the company is increasingly aligned with secular demand drivers in cloud connectivity and that execution is the key gating factor for quarterly beats. Jefferies keeps a buy rating with a 10.70-euro target, pointing to improving earnings quality as mix skews toward network platforms that carry stronger software content and lifecycle services. The team expects adjusted EPS progression to benefit from operating leverage as revenue approaches the 6.00 billion US dollars range and cost efficiencies scale with deliveries. They also highlight discipline around capital allocation and operating expense management as supportive of the EBIT outlook near term. Kepler Capital also reiterates a buy, underscoring the appeal of the current order book and management’s guidance parameters, which include a tighter capital expenditure outlook and a reaffirmed comparable operating profit framework for the year. In their view, the near-term debate is more about pacing than direction: favorable demand signals are in place, and the thesis rests on unlocking revenue milestones on schedule and maintaining price quality in Mobile Infrastructure. In synthesizing the bullish majority, three through-lines emerge: first, the order book linked to AI-networking and cloud connectivity has expanded materially and is beginning to convert; second, revenue and adjusted EPS forecasts for the current quarter—5.95 billion and 0.07, respectively—are seen as achievable if delivery phasing holds; and third, mix improvement via Network Infrastructure and software attach represents the primary margin lever into year-end. The catalysts longed for by the bullish cohort are tangible signs of conversion within the quarter, confirmation of margin stability or improvement versus the last quarter’s 45.98% gross level, and guidance language that maps the recent order acceleration to a clearer revenue timeline across the next several quarters.