India faces a "double hit" on stocks and currency!

On September 23rd during trading hours, the Indian exchange rate plunged again, with the rupee against the US dollar falling nearly 0.6% at one point and breaking below 88.80, hitting a new historic low. Since last Thursday, the rupee has cumulatively declined nearly 1% against the dollar. Some traders indicated that the Indian central bank may sell US dollars through state-owned banks to support the rupee.

India's stock market also continued its adjustment, with intraday declines reaching nearly 0.5% at one point. As of press time, the Indian SENSEX30 index narrowed its decline to 0.07%, after falling 0.47% on Friday and 0.56% on Monday.

Analysts point out that the significant increase in H-1B visa fees by the United States will impact the profitability of India's IT industry and reduce India's foreign exchange income, which will intensify depreciation pressure on the Indian rupee. It is reported that 71% to 72% of all H-1B visas in the United States are issued to Indians.

New Lows Again! Indian Exchange Rate Plunges

In recent days, India's stock market and exchange rate have continued to decline. On September 23rd during trading, the Indian rupee against the US dollar plunged straight down, hitting a low of 88.8025, once again setting a new historic low. As of press time, the rupee traded at 88.7460 against the dollar, down 0.50% for the day. Since the beginning of this year, the Indian rupee has cumulatively depreciated nearly 3.7%.

US President Trump signed a proclamation on September 19th Eastern Time, raising the fees that companies pay for H-1B visa applicants to $100,000 annually. According to Trump, this move aims to ensure that the US attracts high-skilled talent that cannot be replaced by Americans. Previously, companies typically paid fees of several thousand dollars for H-1B visas. A senior US government official further explained that this fee only applies to new H-1B visa applicants, not existing visa holders or renewals.

Reuters pointed out that after the US raised visa fees, pressure on the Indian rupee has further intensified, making an already weak outlook even worse. The report noted that the significant increase in H-1B visa fees may slow the deployment of Indian workers to US clients and could hurt the profitability of India's IT industry. This could in turn affect capital flows, as foreign investors may reassess their holdings in IT companies.

Additionally, reducing the number of workers sent to the US could impact remittances, thereby harming US dollar inflows to India. The timing of the visa fee increase compounds existing external pressures, as the US has already imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods, the highest among Asian countries, which was already expected to weaken India's exports.

"In terms of the rupee, pressure has increased as tariffs have taken effect, reaching 50%, and recent visa news has also had an increasingly negative impact on capital flows, especially into the IT sector," said ANZ Bank foreign exchange strategist Dhiraj Nim.

Capital Economics economist Shilan Shah stated: "If more tech workers stay in India, the Indian economy could benefit from US H-1B visa reforms. He noted that currently over 70% of H-1B visa holders are Indians. Since this reform may slow worker flows to the US tech industry, it will expand India's domestic high-skilled labor pool. However, since the US is India's largest source of remittances, reduced remittances could significantly decrease India's foreign exchange income, putting pressure on the Indian rupee."

So far this year, the rupee has underperformed Asian peers, failing to benefit from the recent decline in the US dollar index. High tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods have suppressed export prospects and reduced foreign capital inflows, putting pressure on the rupee. Since 2025, foreign investors have withdrawn more than $15 billion from Indian stock markets.

According to rough statistics, 71% to 72% of all H-1B visas in the US are issued to Indians, so Trump's move has caused panic in India's technology industry and among thousands of professionals living in the US. Many affected Indian citizens have expressed that the Trump administration's move is targeted specifically at Indians. India's Ministry of External Affairs responded on the 20th, stating that the new policy will cause distress to Indian families and bring humanitarian consequences. The Indian government said it is studying the "full impact" of this measure and has asked its overseas missions to provide all possible assistance to Indian citizens facing urgent travel situations.

Indian Prime Minister Modi's Latest Statement

According to Reference News citing Russia Today's website on September 21st, Indian Prime Minister Modi stated that India's real enemy is not any country, but dependence on foreign nations.

Modi said in a speech in Gujarat on September 20th that India is "moving forward with the attitude of being a friend to the world" and has no main adversaries. He said: "In the true sense, if we have an enemy, it is dependence on other countries."

Modi emphasized that for India to achieve prosperity and ensure "peace and stability," it must be self-reliant. He called for increasing domestic production and reducing dependence on external sources. He said: "If we allow ourselves to be at the mercy of others, our self-respect will also be harmed... We cannot risk the future of our children and grandchildren."

Modi specifically mentioned the maritime sector, urging the revival of domestic shipbuilding and high-tech industries. He pointed out that 50 years ago, ships made in India handled 40% of the country's overseas trade, while today this proportion is only 5%.

Modi said India pays foreign shipping companies large amounts of money annually, comparable to India's defense budget. He also noted that this dependence has already caused significant losses. Modi said: "Whether it's chips or ships, we need to manufacture them in India."

According to foreign media reports, the new generation Goods and Services Tax (GST) reform implemented by the Indian government officially took effect on September 22nd. The Press Trust of India reported that Indian Prime Minister Modi stated on social media on September 22nd that the new generation GST reform will increase residents' savings and directly benefit all groups in society. The Hindustan Times reported that with the reform taking effect, India's previous four tax brackets have been simplified to two brackets of 5% and 18%.

Modi stated that daily necessities are now either tax-free or subject to the lowest 5% tax rate, with "almost all goods previously taxed at 12% reduced to 5%." He said the tax reduction will help every household save more on expenses and make business operations easier.