白银为何突跳水？传欧洲大行23亿美元空头爆仓，美联储紧急注资救市

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现货白银今日上演“过山车”行情，在短暂飙升后急速跳水，盘中跌超10%。市场剧烈波动的原因，X疯传一则未经证实的重磅传闻：一家大型银行因白银期货空头爆仓，无法缴纳23亿美元追加保证金，最终被强制平仓，并传出美联储紧急注资340亿美元救市。

尽管传闻未点名，但市场猜测主要集中在少数几家欧洲大型银行，也有声音曾指向摩根大通。对于这则传闻，市场态度不一，多数分析人士对其真实性持怀疑态度，并指出多项疑点，例如COMEX 白银市场在周末并无交易。

然而，有宏观研究团队对涉事银行(传闻指向某欧洲大行)进行了压力测算：即使假设单一银行独自承担COMEX市场全部200亿美元白银空头(对应49689份合约)，在银价从50 美元涨至80美元的极端情况下，其流动性支出压力约为77.5亿美元。该欧洲大行拥有约3300亿美元的高品质流动性资产。因此，77.5亿美元的支出“并非难事，更不至于引发破产”。

分析师强调，虽然数据显示流动性压力可控，但市场最担忧的是“先卖后问”的恐慌逻辑。即便传闻不实，市场普遍的担忧仍可能导致相关银行股价波动，形成股价下跌、担忧加剧、股价进一步下跌的短期恶性循环。此外，该行在透明度较低的伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA)所承担的风险，亦是市场关注的焦点。

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