According to intelligence sources, Guotai Haitong Securities has released a research report stating that with economic recovery and the rollout of the 2025 heavy truck "trade-in" policy, domestic heavy truck sales are expected to gradually rebound, with projected 2025 sales of 1.067 million units, representing an 18% year-over-year increase. In recent years, domestic new energy heavy truck technology has gradually matured with rapidly declining costs, and domestic new energy penetration rates are expected to have significant room for improvement, with the 2025 penetration rate projected to reach 15%. Growth opportunities remain in the heavy truck industry, specifically reflected in domestic market recovery and sustained export growth. Additionally, with the development of natural gas heavy trucks, rising industry barriers are expected to drive profitability improvements for leading companies.

Key findings from Guotai Haitong include:

In terms of overall volume, August domestic heavy truck sales reached 92,000 units, up 47% year-over-year and 8% month-over-month. Cumulative January-August domestic heavy truck sales totaled 716,000 units, up 15% year-over-year. The sustained high growth in August heavy truck volumes was driven by two factors: first, a relatively low base from the same period last year, and second, the "trade-in" policy's stable promotional effect on the new heavy truck market from mid-to-late May through August, propelling five consecutive months of rapid year-over-year growth in the heavy truck industry. Electric heavy trucks continued their explosive growth trajectory, while natural gas heavy trucks reversed their decline, staging a recovery after five consecutive months of year-over-year declines.

From a sales structure perspective, in August 2025, semi-trailer tractors, freight vehicles, and incomplete vehicles accounted for 50.6%, 27.8%, and 21.7% of total heavy truck sales respectively, compared to 51.9%, 25.3%, and 22.7% in 2024, with heavy freight vehicles showing strengthened market share.

Semi-trailer tractors: August sales reached 49,000 units, up 42% year-over-year and 14% month-over-month. Cumulative January-August sales totaled 362,000 units, up 9% year-over-year.

Heavy freight vehicles: August sales reached 24,000 units, up 54% year-over-year but down 2% month-over-month. Cumulative January-August sales totaled 199,000 units, up 27% year-over-year.

Heavy incomplete vehicles: August sales reached 19,000 units, up 50% year-over-year and 7% month-over-month. Cumulative January-August sales totaled 155,000 units, up 15% year-over-year.

Focusing on natural gas heavy trucks, August domestic natural gas heavy truck sales reached 16,000 units, up 32% year-over-year and 30% month-over-month. Cumulative January-August domestic natural gas heavy truck sales totaled 116,000 units, down 9% year-over-year.

Natural gas semi-trailer tractors: August domestic natural gas semi-trailer tractor sales reached 15,000 units, up 33% year-over-year and 32% month-over-month. Cumulative January-August domestic natural gas semi-trailer tractor sales totaled 112,000 units, down 10% year-over-year.

The natural gas penetration rate for heavy trucks in August was 17%, while the natural gas penetration rate for semi-trailer tractors was 32%. Based on total lifecycle cost calculations for heavy trucks, natural gas usage is economically advantageous for tractors with annual average mileage exceeding 150,000 kilometers during most time periods. Under the large-scale equipment renewal policy, natural gas heavy trucks, as cost-effective equipment, are expected to see further penetration rate improvements.

New energy heavy trucks: August domestic new energy heavy truck sales reached 15,000 units, up 197% year-over-year and 13% month-over-month. Cumulative January-August domestic new energy heavy truck sales totaled 103,000 units, up 175% year-over-year. The new energy penetration rate for heavy trucks in August was 16%, with the cumulative January-August new energy penetration rate at 14%.

Risk factors: Economic development falling short of expectations, significant increases in raw material prices.