Dan Ivascyn, Chief Investment Officer at Pimco, stated in a media interview that the conflict involving Iran could lead the Federal Reserve to further delay interest rate cuts and potentially even increase borrowing costs.
The CIO of this bond giant noted that Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a surge in energy prices, presenting new challenges for Fed policymakers who are focused on bringing inflation down to the 2% target.
"While the U.S. is not at that point yet, as seen currently in Europe, the UK, and even Japan, we may witness more tightening ahead. I would not completely rule out the possibility of a rate hike in the U.S.," Ivascyn remarked.
He further added that, given the current inflation dynamics and the uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook, a rate cut in the U.S. could be counterproductive. He indicated that any such move would "very likely lead to higher medium- to long-term interest rates."
Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton, commented that the Federal Reserve "will find it more difficult to control inflation." She pointed out that investor demand for inflation-hedging assets is on the rise.
The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged in its last two meetings. While few market observers anticipate a rate hike in the near term, uncertainty is growing regarding the Fed's potential actions in future meetings.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a research report last Friday that they expect the Fed to postpone the next two rate cuts to December 2026 and March 2027. They project that energy costs will keep the core PCE price index increase close to the 3% level.