A former Citigroup executive has forecast that AI robots could surpass the number of human workers in just a few decades. The executive stated in a Monday interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe": "You can already buy humanoid robots today, which have a payback period of less than 10 weeks compared to human workers." A Global Managing Partner at McKinsey & Company anticipates that the number of AI agents within companies will match the number of human employees within 18 months.

A former Citigroup executive warned on Monday that the number of AI robots will exceed the working population within decades, as more businesses adopt AI agents and continuously cut costs. Rob Garlick, former Head of Innovation, Technology, and the Future of Work at Citi Global Insights, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" that with corporate management persistently prioritizing profitability, human workers will be left far behind. "Our management systems, from an economic and business perspective, worship profitability." "When the profit motive meets technological advancement, we are about to witness the largest displacement in history: AI will be able to do more and more things, do them better, and at a lower cost, ultimately replacing humans." Garlick, who recently published the book "AI – Chaos or Abundance? Why the Future of Work Needs Pro-Human Leaders," explained that his prior research at Citi indicated an explosive growth in the number of AI robots, driven by these business decisions. "In the coming decades, the number of mobile robots will exceed the working population; if you add in all the various small AI agents, the scale will be explosive." According to a 2024 Citi report led by Garlick, the number of various AI robots—from humanoid robots and domestic cleaning robots to autonomous vehicles—is projected to reach 1.3 billion by 2035 and rapidly exceed 4 billion by 2050. The report also calculated the payback period for robots replacing humans:

A $15,000 robot replacing a job with a $41 hourly wage pays for itself in 3.8 weeks; replacing a job with a $7.25 hourly wage has a payback period of 21.6 weeks. A $35,000 robot replacing a job with a $41 hourly wage pays for itself in 8.9 weeks.

"You can already buy humanoid robots today, which have a payback period of less than 10 weeks compared to human workers," Garlick cited data from his book, stating, "Humans simply cannot compete on that basis."

**The Rise of AI Agents** Microsoft's Work Trend Index report shows that 80% of managers expect AI agents to be deeply integrated into company AI strategies within the next 12-18 months. AI agents are software programs capable of making autonomous decisions and completing tasks with minimal human intervention. Bob Sternfels, Global Managing Partner at McKinsey & Company, mentioned in an interview with the Harvard Business Review that his firm currently has 40,000 employees and 20,000 AI agents; a year ago, there were only 3,000 agents. He predicts the number of agents will equal the number of human employees within 18 months. Tesla CEO Elon Musk expressed a similar view last month at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, stating that AI could surpass human intelligence by the end of this year. "My prediction is that in a positive future scenario, we will produce AI robots in vast quantities, and they will outnumber humans... There will be an extreme abundance of goods and services because there will be more robots than people."

**Growing Concerns Over AI Job Displacement** Over the past year, concerns about AI replacing human jobs have intensified, as major companies like Amazon, Salesforce, Accenture, Heineken, and Lufthansa have laid off thousands of employees, citing technological transformation. In January, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC that AI is "hitting the labor market like a tsunami" and warned that "most countries and businesses are not prepared." Data from consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas in December indicated that nearly 55,000 job cuts in the US in 2025 were related to AI. However, some executives hold a more positive view. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang predicted that the "AI boom" will bring six-figure salaries for AI and chip factory builders and boost demand for skilled trades such as plumbers, electricians, construction workers, and steelworkers.