The US stock market is witnessing a significant increase in concentration as a pipeline of AI giants prepares for public listings.

OpenAI has confidentially filed for an initial public offering, joining SpaceX and Anthropic to form a group of AI candidates with a combined valuation nearing $3.6 trillion, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Nasdaq Composite Index.

This development puts further pressure on the technology-heavy index, which is already characterized by high concentration among its top constituents.

OpenAI announced on Monday that it had submitted a confidential IPO registration to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

This follows Anthropic's announcement last week of its own confidential filing and a new funding round that valued it at $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI's valuation for the first time.

SpaceX is planning to go public this week with an estimated valuation of around $1.8 trillion, a move that would immediately place it among the world's most valuable listed companies.

The aggregate valuation of these three firms, around $3.6 trillion, equates to roughly one-tenth of the Nasdaq's total market value.

Currently, the ten largest components of the index already account for over 40% of its weighting.

The inclusion of these AI behemoths would significantly amplify this concentration, thereby increasing the index's exposure to volatility within the technology sector.

Simultaneously, the intricate web of capital relationships between these AI leaders is extending from the private markets into the public arena, raising concerns among some market participants about potential valuation bubbles.

This wave of AI listings is set to profoundly impact the asset allocations of passive funds and reshape global investors' exposure to technology stocks.

Behind the massive influx of capital, the commercial application of AI technology remains in its early stages, with substantial uncertainty still surrounding the long-term profitability and value-creation pathways for the related companies.

Combined Valuation of Three AI Giants Nears $3.6 Trillion

OpenAI's announcement makes it the third major AI firm, after SpaceX and Anthropic, to formally initiate preparations for a public listing.

In terms of valuation, SpaceX stands at approximately $1.8 trillion, Anthropic at about $965 billion, and OpenAI at around $852 billion, summing to roughly $3.6 trillion.

OpenAI's valuation is based on a funding round completed in March of this year, where it raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation, a single-round fundraising amount that already exceeds the total IPO valuation of SpaceX.

According to reports, OpenAI is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on its listing preparations, with a potential window for going public as early as this fall.

The company stated that the timing is not yet finalized, noting that some tasks are easier to accomplish as a private entity, but the move provides the option to go public more quickly at an optimal time.

It is also reported that OpenAI plans to conduct a tender offer for employee shares several weeks before the official IPO to provide liquidity, a move the company spokesperson declined to comment on.

Nasdaq Concentration Risk Escalates, Market Wary of Circular Capital Structures

An industry expert recently highlighted that the $3.6 trillion AI IPO pipeline accounts for about 10% of the Nasdaq's total market cap, while the index's top ten constituents already represent over 40% of its weighting.

Adding these AI companies would substantially increase the index's concentration, further exposing it to cyclical risks and volatility in the technology market.

The expert also pointed out the expanding scale of passive funds and the deep capital interconnections among these AI giants.

The complex web of computational dependencies and mutual investment arrangements between AI leaders is gradually extending from private to public markets, creating a pattern of "circular trading." This dynamic is cited as one reason some believe the current AI market may contain elements of a bubble.

This concern is not confined to the US market. The expert noted that the dominant influence of US tech giants on global supply chains has also fueled capital enthusiasm for semiconductor and infrastructure companies worldwide, supporting elevated valuations in other markets.

The expert suggested there is a deeper commercial logic behind this wave of AI listings: the capability to raise massive capital has itself become a core component of their service and business models, creating a structural barrier to new entrants.

The capital moats built around these companies have become part of their business characteristics, serving as a defense against competitors and contributing to the rationale for the current IPO surge.

AI companies are currently racing to raise hundreds of billions of dollars to purchase chips, build data centers, and develop more advanced AI systems.

Reports indicate that OpenAI informed investors in February of its plan to cumulatively invest approximately $600 billion in AI infrastructure by 2030.

Technology Remains Early-Stage, AI Application Layer Holds Greater Investment Potential

The expert stated that AI is a real technology that has demonstrated immense potential in its current "technology demonstration phase." However, significant work remains in engineering deployment, cost optimization, and scaling.

Both the underlying technology and the infrastructure are far from their final form, with ample room for improvement, which could come from existing AI leaders or from new enterprises focused on solving specific problems.

Using the aviation industry as an analogy, the expert explained the distribution of AI investment opportunities: very few companies can build engines, but the economic value is primarily created in the broader ecosystem encompassing aircraft manufacturing, airline operations, and supporting services.

We have discovered a remarkable "engine technology" with the potential to spawn entirely new business models, but the vast array of businesses and applications to be built on top of it are yet to be developed.

Where the ultimate value will be created, captured, and consolidated remains an open question.