On March 4th, market movements this week have defied expectations amid ongoing geopolitical instability. While the US dollar and crude oil posted significant gains, most global financial products experienced a widespread sell-off. Surprisingly, traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver were not spared: gold plummeted by $370 in a single day, and silver dropped sharply by $13.5. The primary reason is that the strong rally in the US dollar diverted capital away from the gold market, and Monday's gap-up opening further prompted investors to take profits. This type of sharp, cleansing decline has occurred multiple times over the past year. It is important to note that the current trend aligns with our earlier assessment—gold and silver will maintain their upward trajectory this year, but a rolling long strategy is essential.

Furthermore, the overall bullish structure for gold remains intact, although the higher price base has increased short-term volatility and trading complexity. However, sharp declines within a bull market often present opportunities, although the magnitude of recent moves makes precise bottom-fishing challenging. Crucially, the downside for gold in this phase is limited and differs from the previous correction: last year's steep decline released annual upside risks, whereas the current rally from around $4,400 to $5,400 has been largely driven by geopolitical safe-haven demand, suggesting a shallower pullback.

Finally, from a rhythm perspective, $4,400 serves as the starting point of this uptrend—acting both as a pivot for this year’s bull market and a long-term bull-bear demarcation line. Over the long term, investors should focus on core fundamentals rather than short-term price fluctuations. Although recent volatility has been intense, it is encouraging a shift toward medium-term value positioning. Looking ahead, gold still possesses upside potential; even in a sideways scenario, it is likely to sustain high-level consolidation. Key support lies in the $5,000–$5,020 range, offering an ideal entry point should prices retreat to that zone.