Haitong International released a research report stating that in July 2025, national express delivery companies handled 164.0 billion parcels, up 15.1% year-over-year; from January to July 2025, the volume reached 1,120.5 billion parcels, up 18.7% year-over-year. The continued trend of smaller packages, e-commerce promotions, and convenient returns and exchanges jointly drove the volume growth in the first seven months of 2025 to exceed the Postal Administration's forecast of over 8% growth for the full year 2025. In July 2025, express delivery industry revenue grew 8.9% year-over-year, while revenue per parcel declined 5.3% year-over-year; from January to July, industry revenue increased 9.9% year-over-year, with revenue per parcel down 7.4% year-over-year. The decline in industry revenue per parcel in July narrowed both year-over-year and month-over-month, reflecting that price competition has moderated under industry "anti-involution" guidance. This round of "anti-involution" will continue to deepen from top to bottom, with more regions likely to follow suit in governance measures.
Haitong International's main viewpoints are as follows:
July express delivery volume increased 15.1% year-over-year; S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd. deepened implementation of business activation strategies, with business volume up 33.7% year-over-year, continuing to lead industry growth: In July 2025, national express delivery companies handled 164.0 billion parcels, up 15.1% year-over-year; from January to July 2025, volume reached 1,120.5 billion parcels, up 18.7% year-over-year. The continued trend of smaller packages, e-commerce promotions, and convenient returns and exchanges jointly drove the volume growth in the first seven months of 2025 to exceed the Postal Administration's forecast of over 8% growth for the full year 2025.
E-commerce express delivery: Yto Express Group Co.,Ltd./Yunda Holding Group Co.,Ltd./STO's business volumes in July 2025 increased 20.8%/7.6%/11.9% year-over-year respectively; from January to July, business volumes increased 21.6%/15.1%/19.3% year-over-year respectively.
Direct-operated express delivery: S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd.'s business volume in July 2025 increased 33.7% year-over-year; from January to July, business volume increased 26.9% year-over-year. Benefiting from implementing business activation strategies and increasing authorization and incentives for frontline operations, S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd.'s volume growth rate has continuously led the industry from March to July.
Industry concentration continues to consolidate, with leading companies' Q2 market share increasing quarter-over-quarter. From early 2022 to the end of 2024, due to relatively moderate price competition under policy regulation, market share concentration toward leading companies was relatively slow.
Entire industry: From January to July 2025, the express delivery industry's CR8 reached 86.9, up 1.7 year-over-year, reflecting significantly increased attention to leading companies' market share in 2025.
E-commerce express delivery: ZTO EXPRESS-W/Yto Express Group Co.,Ltd./Yunda Holding Group Co.,Ltd./STO/J&T EXPRESS-W's Q2 2025 market shares were 19.5%/16.0%/13.2%/12.9%/11.1% respectively, with quarter-over-quarter changes of +0.6pct/+1.0pct/-0.3pct/+0.1pct/+0.1pct respectively, showing leading express companies' Q2 market share increased quarter-over-quarter.
Direct-operated express delivery: S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd.'s Q2 2025 market share reached 8.4%, up 0.6pct quarter-over-quarter.
July price decline narrowed, express delivery "anti-involution" efforts exceeded expectations, short-term competitive pressure eased, medium to long-term continued guarantee of healthy competition.
Entire industry: In July 2025, express delivery industry revenue increased 8.9% year-over-year, with revenue per parcel declining 5.3% year-over-year; from January to July, industry revenue increased 9.9% year-over-year, with revenue per parcel declining 7.4% year-over-year.
E-commerce express delivery: Yto Express Group Co.,Ltd./Yunda Holding Group Co.,Ltd./STO's revenue per parcel in July 2025 declined 7.2%/3.5%/1.5% year-over-year respectively; from January to July, revenue per parcel declined 6.4%/6.9%/3.8% year-over-year respectively.
Direct-operated express delivery: S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd.'s revenue per parcel in July 2025 declined 14.0% year-over-year; from January to July, revenue per parcel declined 12.6% year-over-year.
Haitong International believes that the narrowing decline in industry revenue per parcel in July both year-over-year and month-over-month reflects that price competition has moderated under industry "anti-involution" guidance. In early July, the State Post Bureau emphasized its clear opposition to "involution-style" competition, and at the end of July held a symposium with express delivery companies requiring stable network operations and stability of grassroots outlets. According to logistics industry sources, Yiwu took the lead in requiring a base price increase of approximately 0.2 yuan in July; in August, multiple locations in Guangdong followed suit by raising base prices by approximately 0.4 yuan, higher than Yiwu's increase. This round of "anti-involution" will continue to deepen from top to bottom, with more regions likely to follow suit in governance measures. "Anti-involution" will ease competitive pressure in the short term, and more importantly, continue to guarantee healthy competition in the medium to long term, benefiting natural industry consolidation.
Investment Recommendations
"Anti-involution" will effectively ease industry competitive pressure. E-commerce express delivery profitability is expected to begin recovery in the second half of the year. Future profit elasticity will depend on price increase sustainability. Close attention should be paid to regulatory intensity from the Postal Administration. Continue to favor leading time-sensitive express delivery companies with certain business growth, as well as profit and valuation recovery opportunities for e-commerce express delivery.
Key focus: S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd. (002352.SZ). Also watch: Yto Express Group Co.,Ltd. (600233.SH), ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057), J&T EXPRESS-W (01519), Yunda Holding Group Co.,Ltd. (002120.SZ).
Risk Warnings
Economic volatility risks, deteriorating price competition, policy risks, oil price volatility, etc.