CITIC Bank's Hu Gang Forecasts Low-Rate, High-Volatility Neutral Bond Market in 2026

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On March 23, CITIC BANK held its 2025 annual results briefing. Hu Gang, Vice President of CITIC BANK, stated that the bond market gradually weakened amid two-way fluctuations in 2025, differing from the one-sided bullish trend seen in 2014. While financial peers generally experienced negative growth, CITIC BANK's financial market business maintained steady growth, with full-year performance showing significant improvement compared to the third-quarter results, driven by three key highlights.

First, the business performance stood out, with bond operations outperforming the broader market. Bond investment interest income declined by 15%, 9 percentage points lower than the industry average (which fell by 24%). Income from fair value changes in the OCI account was 2.12 times higher than that of comparable peers, with both indicators ranking among the top two in the industry. Government bond underwriting reached 500 billion yuan, ranking first among domestic commercial banks. Foreign exchange market-making transactions exceeded 4 trillion U.S. dollars, a 21% year-on-year increase, with multiple forex indicators placing among the top two in the market and first among joint-stock commercial banks. The financial market business also won the "China Best Financial Technology Implementation Award" from The Asian Banker.

Second, strategic transformation progressed steadily, with a focus on building an exceptional investment and transaction bank. The head office established new centers for financial同业 and foreign currency asset management, increasing investments in human resources, risk assets, and authorization.

Third, structural optimization continued. Flexible management of the OCI account improved bond portfolio composition, while increased investments in overseas bonds and precious metals businesses laid a solid foundation for future financial market operations.

Discussing the 2026 market outlook, Hu Gang predicted that domestically, accommodative monetary policies and low interest rates are certainties. The seesaw effect between stocks and bonds, along with expectations of macroeconomic recovery, will pose challenges for bond market investments. Internationally, escalating geopolitical conflicts and divergent policy cycles among major global economies will create uncertainties in cross-border capital flows and foreign exchange volatility. He concluded that the bond market in 2026 is likely to exhibit a neutral pattern characterized by low interest rates and high volatility.

For 2026, CITIC BANK has formulated three core investment strategies: First, hold bonds to capture coupon income, increasing the proportion of credit and local government bond investments while enhancing credit, market-making capabilities, and brand strength. In 2025, bond turnover reached 750 billion yuan, a 240% year-on-year increase, with end-counterparties rising to 900, up by 500 from the previous year. Second, engage in trading to capture price differences, maintaining significant exposure to government and policy financial bonds while leveraging波段 operations for gains. Digital empowerment will be strengthened to enhance quantitative trading capabilities. Third, optimize large-asset allocation by improving mechanisms for major asset categories. Overseas allocations will increase under controlled risk, with 10 billion U.S. dollars already added in January-February 2026. Diversified investments across countries, currencies, and products will be pursued, with non-U.S. investments now accounting for over 39%. The bank will also enhance its all-weather investment and trading capabilities covering commodities, foreign exchange, interest rates, and capital markets.

Hu Gang revealed that revenue from the financial market business grew by over 100% in January-February 2026. For the full year, the bank cautiously projects revenue growth exceeding 10%, expressing confidence in its business development prospects.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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