In September, A-share market trading volume remained at high levels, with daily turnover consistently exceeding 2 trillion yuan. In terms of indices, most achieved significant gains.

The Shanghai Composite Index posted a cumulative gain of 0.64% in September, closing at 3,882.78 points. The ChiNext Index surged 12.04% cumulatively in September, the STAR 50 Index gained 11.48%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 6.54%. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell 2.9% in September, leading decliners.

Among CITIC Level-1 sectors, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics led September gains at 21.17%, 12.79%, and 10.96% respectively. Real estate, media, machinery, and automotive sectors followed closely, all posting gains exceeding 5% in September.

On the declining side, defense and military led losses at 7.21%, while banking, non-bank financials, and beauty care indices all dropped over 5%.

Over 70% of Respondents Profitable Before Holiday

On October 7, a questionnaire survey titled "Challenge 3,900 Points After Holiday?" was released, with sincere gratitude for the enthusiastic participation and support from followers.

According to respondent profiles, 57% were veteran investors with over 10 years of market experience. 19% had 5-10 years of experience, while 17% had 1-5 years. Overall, survey participants possessed relatively rich A-share trading experience.

Regarding position changes, 23% of respondents "increased positions" before the holiday, 5% "reduced positions," and 5% "cleared positions." The remaining 58% maintained their positions unchanged, choosing to hold through the holiday.

From a position management perspective, overall market positioning rose slightly before the holiday. The "50%-100%" category increased by 3 percentage points to 35%. "Below 50%" and "no position" categories both declined by 1 percentage point to 14% and 4% respectively. "Fully leveraged" and "fully invested" proportions remained unchanged from previous levels.

Regarding profit and loss, A-shares demonstrated good money-making effects before the holiday, with approximately 73% of respondents indicating they "made money." Among these, 38% reported "profits within 10%" while 35% reported "profits above 10%."

15% of respondents reported "losses within 10%" and about 13% reported "losses above 10%."

Over 60% of Respondents Believe A-Shares Will Surpass 3,900 Points After Holiday

Regarding post-holiday A-share trends, the most mainstream view was "adjustment complete, challenge 3,900 points after holiday," accounting for 64%. The second most common view was "sideways consolidation between 3,800-3,900 points" at 23%. "Continued adjustment, falling below 3,800 points after holiday" had a smaller proportion at 9%.

When asked "How high do you think the Shanghai Index can reach in this bull market?", 38% of respondents held a 4,000-point view. 31% believed the Shanghai Composite could reach 5,000 points, 7% thought 6,000 points, and 24% believed it could exceed 6,000 points.

Regarding next week's market risk assessment, respondents leaned toward A-shares being at medium risk, with an overall proportion of 57%. 13% considered the A-share market high risk, while 24% viewed it as low risk, representing a relatively high proportion.

Non-ferrous Metals and New Energy See Rising Optimism

For potential sectors and directions in the post-holiday A-share market, the following two sectors received significant attention. Non-ferrous metals increased by 7 percentage points to 17%, becoming the most favored sector among respondents. New energy optimism rose by 2 percentage points to 15%.

Technology, consumer staples, and financial sectors declined by 4, 3, and 2 percentage points respectively, standing at 36%, 5%, and 7%.

Founder Securities noted that regarding industrial metals, the US government shutdown combined with weak employment markets has heated up Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, catalyzing non-ferrous metal price increases. Global copper giant Freeport released an update on October 5 regarding the Grasberg copper mine accident, confirming seven employees unfortunately perished. The institution judges that fourth-quarter copper mine supply growth may turn negative, with industry supply tightness basically determined for 2026. Short-term supply disruptions serve as core catalysts, with smooth medium to long-term logic supporting copper price uptrends.

For precious metals, the US government shutdown, delayed employment and inflation data, and DOGE2.0 potentially bringing additional employment pressure may force the Federal Reserve to initiate continuous rate cuts. Combined with stagflation expectations, gold and silver may enter long-term bull markets.

Regarding energy metals, since Congo (Kinshasa) introduced cobalt export quotas on September 22, Chinese electrolytic cobalt prices have risen 22%. Cobalt price increases will significantly improve cobalt companies' profitability. Currently, CATL's Kanxia Wo lithium mine remains shut down while others operate normally. Attention should be paid to bottom investment value in the lithium sector.