Earning Preview: NCR Voyix Corporation this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 0.49%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

NCR Voyix Corporation will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market, with current estimates pointing to modest revenue growth, a significant year-over-year rebound in EBIT and adjusted EPS, and investor sentiment supported by recent capital allocation and operating-model updates.

Market Forecast

Current estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025 indicate revenue of 690.05 million, up 0.49% year over year, adjusted EPS of 0.29, up 106.12% year over year, and EBIT of 54.33 million, up 176.58% year over year. Margin forecasts have not been issued through the dataset, but the combination of modest revenue growth and a sharp rebound in EBIT implies expectations for sequential operating leverage and improved cost discipline into the period. The core revenue base is expected to be anchored by platform-led Retail and Restaurants solutions with seasonally resilient demand and continued software and services adoption. Within the portfolio, Restaurants stands out as a potential growth engine supported by a higher mix of software and payments; it generated 210.00 million last quarter, with year-over-year growth by segment not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the third quarter of 2025, NCR Voyix Corporation delivered revenue of 684.00 million, a gross profit margin of 25.15%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -19.00 million, a net profit margin of -2.78%, and adjusted EPS of 0.31, which was flat year over year. A key highlight was the adjusted EPS outperformance versus estimates by approximately 0.09 per share alongside a modest top-line beat, despite a challenging mix and pricing environment that weighed on GAAP profitability. On the business-mix side, Retail contributed 467.00 million (68.27% of revenue) and Restaurants contributed 210.00 million (30.70%), with Other at 7.00 million (1.02%); segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed, though the mix was consistent with the prior focus on platform and payments expansion.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Retail Platforms and Services

Retail remains the largest pillar of NCR Voyix Corporation’s revenue model and is expected to anchor the fourth-quarter performance. The company’s revenue estimate of 690.05 million, up 0.49% year over year, implies steady transaction volumes and sustained adoption of software and services layered on installed platforms. The sharp expected increase in EBIT to 54.33 million year over year, despite a modest revenue uptick, suggests the market is expecting improved operating leverage within Retail through a combination of cost controls, disciplined pricing, and a stable services mix. Across the quarter, we expect Retail demand to be supported by platform migration activity and service-level expansions with existing customers. The company’s hardware-to-services balance remains an important determinant of quarterly margin, and consensus reflects optimism that higher-value software and managed services can offset pressure where hardware constitutes a larger share of shipments. Sequentially, a rebound from the third quarter’s low EBIT base (15.00 million actual) is embedded in estimates; we infer this is tied to cost normalization post spin-related items and seasonal scale benefits in maintenance and services. Looking a step ahead, the announced transition of self-checkout and point-of-sale hardware to an outsourced design and manufacturing model under the Ennoconn agreement has medium-term implications for Retail economics. Starting in the second quarter of 2026, hardware revenue will be recognized on a net basis, which should naturally lower reported product revenue but can lift reported gross margin percentage if costs move off the P&L and commercial terms remain favorable. While this does not affect the fourth quarter of 2025 being reported on February 26, 2026, it reinforces the focus on software and services as the primary earnings driver, and it informs how investors are likely to interpret margin and revenue trajectories beyond the print.

Restaurants SaaS and Payments

Restaurants delivered 210.00 million in the third quarter and continues to be positioned for higher recurring revenue density given the attach rates of software subscriptions and payments services within customer deployments. Fourth-quarter estimates imply that year-over-year earnings growth will be significantly stronger than revenue growth for the company, and Restaurants, with a structurally higher software mix, is a likely contributor to this operating leverage. Even without disclosed segment-level growth rates, the quarter-to-date narrative supports ongoing adoption of cloud-delivered capabilities and demand for integrated payments that deepen the installed base relationship. From a profitability standpoint, the mix shift toward SaaS and payments can help stabilize and potentially expand margins since these revenue streams typically exhibit lower hardware intensity and steadier renewal patterns. The benefits are not just gross margin accretive; they can also reduce volatility in working capital and free cash flow as the business leans into subscription and transaction-based economics. In the near term, we expect investors to look for management commentary tying Restaurants pipeline conversion to 2026 revenue visibility, especially as the hardware outsourcing model unlocks additional focus on software innovation and customer experience upgrades. Strategically, the Restaurants segment is well aligned with NCR Voyix Corporation’s portfolio objective of increasing the proportion of recurring revenue and streamlining the route-to-market. Given the adjusted EPS estimate of 0.29 for the fourth quarter, up 106.12% year over year from a softer base, any incremental confirmation that Restaurants subscription ARR and payments throughput are scaling can provide additional confidence in the sustainability of earnings beyond seasonal effects. Conversely, if one-time hardware swings or timing of large deployments dominate the narrative, investors will parse whether the expected leverage evident in the EBIT estimate is fully repeatable into 2026.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Earnings quality versus headline beats will matter. Consensus embeds a notable year-over-year rebound in EBIT, and the degree to which gross margin expands relative to the third quarter’s 25.15% will shape how the stock reacts, as investors weigh the sustainability of cost improvements against the top-line cadence of 0.49% growth. A beat on adjusted EPS, even by a narrow margin, would reinforce the trajectory implied by estimates and could help close the gap between GAAP and non-GAAP profitability that was evident last quarter when the company posted a -2.78% net profit margin under GAAP. Capital allocation stands as a clear near-term sentiment lever. NCR Voyix Corporation raised its share repurchase authorization to 300.00 million, signaling confidence in balance-sheet capacity and forward cash generation. The pace and timing of repurchases relative to free cash flow seasonality will be closely watched; higher buyback execution into a stronger earnings cadence could magnify per-share metrics and support valuation, whereas a slower pace might indicate management prioritizing liquidity ahead of the operating-model transition. Operating-model clarity will be scrutinized for 2026. The shift to outsourced hardware design and manufacturing through the Ennoconn agreement, with net revenue recognition for hardware beginning in the second quarter of 2026, changes how investors will map revenue growth to margin expansion. While this transition does not directly affect the fourth quarter of 2025, any incremental disclosures on contractual economics, pass-through treatment, and expected effects on gross margin mix will influence how the market recalibrates models for the second half of 2026. A coherent framework that emphasizes durable software and services growth should be taken as a constructive signal if it aligns with the EBIT and EPS momentum that consensus already implies for the current print.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views currently dominate the published commentary within the allowed period, with 100% of tracked opinions in favor of NCR Voyix Corporation. A recent note from RBC Capital maintained a Buy rating with a 17.00 price target, reflecting confidence that the company’s earnings power can improve as cost actions flow through and as capital returns, including the 300.00 million repurchase authorization, support per-share outcomes. This stance aligns with the current-quarter forecasts that show a 176.58% year-over-year rebound in EBIT to 54.33 million and a 106.12% increase in adjusted EPS to 0.29 despite only 0.49% revenue growth, indicating that quality of earnings and operating leverage are the focal points rather than headline top-line acceleration. The majority view emphasizes three main arguments. First, the sequential improvement embedded in estimates, from 15.00 million of EBIT in the third quarter to an expected 54.33 million in the fourth quarter, suggests that earlier cost pressures are abating and that mix is tilting toward higher-margin services. Second, the buyback authorization increase to 300.00 million is seen as a tangible signal of management’s conviction in future cash generation, which, if executed consistently, can provide a buffer against quarterly volatility in product-reliant revenue lines. Third, the hardware outsourcing and net revenue recognition beginning in the second quarter of 2026, although not impacting the imminent report, is interpreted as a structural step that can simplify the model and potentially uplift reported margins, particularly if contract terms preserve economics while reducing inventory and manufacturing complexity. In this light, the bullish camp is likely to judge the fourth-quarter print through the prism of operating leverage and forward simplification. A clean demonstration that adjusted EPS tracks or exceeds the 0.29 estimate, together with color suggesting durable margin benefits into 2026 as hardware is externalized and software and payments expand, would validate the constructive trajectory embedded in current expectations. While the stock will still react to the magnitude of any revenue surprise around the 690.05 million estimate, bulls are anchoring their case on the sustainability of cash conversion, the effectiveness of capital deployment, and the visibility that comes from a higher proportion of recurring revenue within Retail and Restaurants. The alignment between projected earnings momentum and structural changes to the revenue model underpins the firm, majority-bullish stance on NCR Voyix Corporation ahead of February 26, 2026.