American economist Thomas Friedman once noted in his book "The World is Flat" that he visited Dalian in 1998 and could hardly recognize the city when he returned in 2004. He described China's transformation at the turn of the century, highlighting how, beyond massive manufacturing, knowledge-intensive commercial opportunities began to flourish, with Dalian serving as evidence. The city's skyscrapers were adorned with international brands such as General Electric, Microsoft, Dell, Oracle, HP, Sony, and Accenture. These multinational corporations conducted their regional back-office support and software development operations in Dalian.
Two decades later, Dalian has once again demonstrated its role as a key component of China's industrial foundation. On January 23, 2026, the Dalian Municipal Bureau of Statistics released economic performance data for 2025, revealing that the city's gross domestic product surpassed 1,000.21 billion yuan, marking a historic milestone. This achievement was widely anticipated. As the leading economic hub in Northeast China, Dalian has maintained rapid GDP growth in recent years. Since 2018, it has steadily advanced from 700 billion yuan to 900 billion yuan and now to over one trillion yuan, overcoming various challenges along the way.
Among the three northeastern provinces, Heilongjiang and Jilin rely primarily on single-core development models, while Liaoning benefits from a dual-core dynamic with Shenyang and Dalian. Dalian stands out as the only city in the region with independent planning status and was the first coastal city to open up to foreign investment. If Northeast China requires a gateway to the global stage, Dalian is the undeniable choice. This port city, situated at the southern tip of the Liaodong Peninsula, has lived up to expectations, delivering a positive signal for the revitalization of a region grappling with transformational challenges.
However, reaching the trillion-yuan milestone is only the beginning of Dalian's real test. Like other major cities in the Northeast, Dalian has been labeled part of the "rust belt," and it continues to face obstacles in improving its business environment, developing its private sector, and attracting and retaining talent. While Dalian has firmly established itself as the top economy in the Northeast, its future significance lies not merely in maintaining this position but in providing a replicable model for regional transformation and potentially driving broader economic growth across the area. This represents both a breakthrough for the city and a hope for the wider region.
On the map of Northeast China, the three provincial capitals each possess solid economic foundations. Shenyang, known as the "Ruhr of the East," has deep industrial roots. Changchun is intrinsically linked to the automotive industry, with FAW Group serving as its hallmark. Harbin is renowned for its unique ice and snow culture and tourism resources, attracting nationwide attention during winter. In contrast, Dalian has from the outset oriented itself toward the blue ocean. This atypical northeastern city, located at the southernmost point of the Liaodong Peninsula and bordered by the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, enjoys mild winters and cool summers, offering a rare blend of romantic ambiance and livability within the generally harsh climate of the Northeast.
This does not imply that Dalian is relaxed; on the contrary, Dalian Port handles over 98% of the region's foreign trade containers and more than 60% of its crude oil imports. Its shipping routes connect to more than 300 ports in over 160 countries and regions, effectively functioning as the maritime gateway for Northeast China. Importantly, Dalian does not treat its port merely as a transit point for goods but as a hub for global resource allocation. Leveraging the advantages of its pilot free trade zone, the city has introduced 540 institutional innovations over five years, and its container shipping routes now achieve full coverage of key ports in RCEP member countries. These strengths have attracted over a hundred Fortune 500 companies and enabled Dalian to account for approximately 40% of the total foreign trade import and export volume of the three northeastern provinces.
This strength has naturally translated into growth. In 2025, Dalian's value-added output from industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 11.7% year-on-year, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous year, becoming the core driver behind the GDP exceeding one trillion yuan. The petrochemical industry, serving as a foundational sector, saw its value-added output grow by 8.9%, with the green petrochemical cluster stabilizing at around 400 billion yuan. The equipment manufacturing sector expanded by 15.4%, and the railway and shipbuilding industry surged by 57.5%.
It is worth noting that Dalian is the birthplace of China's first 10,000-ton ship, first high-power diesel locomotive, first offshore drilling platform, and first aircraft carrier. In recent years, Dalian has continued to excel in shipbuilding and vehicle manufacturing. Hengli Heavy Industries, after taking over the former Korean STX shipyard, now has orders scheduled until 2029. Meanwhile, FAW Jiefang Dalian Diesel Engine achieved a 59% year-on-year increase in profit due to cost reductions and efficiency improvements from smart factories. Just two months ago, on December 22, 2025, Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Company, part of China State Shipbuilding Corporation, announced a groundbreaking achievement: the early delivery, by four months, of the "Kaito," a 300,000-ton ultra-large crude carrier that is the world's first to use domestically produced methanol dual-fuel power and is equipped with an intelligent cargo management system. The deck of this oil tanker is as large as three football fields, and its dual-fuel main engine, capable of running on both fuel oil and methanol, has been dubbed the "green intelligent giant of the sea" within the industry.
Another notable case of corporate restructuring is Dalian Heavy Industry, formed through the merger of several state-owned enterprises. In its early stages of reorganization, the company was affected by industry cyclical fluctuations, with actual net profits failing to meet commitments from 2011 to 2013, resulting in a significant performance gap. However, on January 17, 2026, Dalian Heavy Industry achieved a major project milestone by successfully delivering all 28 sets of core equipment for the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, Africa, the world's largest undeveloped iron ore deposit. This large order propelled the company's revenue from 11.1 billion yuan in 2022 to 24.25 billion yuan in 2025, turning a net loss of 30 million yuan into a net profit of 650 million yuan.
These examples illustrate that Dalian has not remained trapped in the "old Northeast" narrative but has instead maximized its maritime advantages, using its port to connect globally and leveraging large orders to drive upgrades. It demonstrates that the revitalization of old industrial bases need not be framed as a story of hardship but can be achieved through the calm, determined pursuit of building large ships, securing major contracts, and earning revenue from the world.
When Friedman observed the signs of international giants at the beginning of the century, Dalian had already been one of the first cities to open up for two decades. During this period, the city's main focus has been openness, establishing economic development zones and continuously utilizing foreign capital, technology, and management expertise to revitalize and upgrade local industries. Around the year 2000, Dalian targeted the offshore outsourcing markets of Japan and South Korea, attracting leading firms such as Neusoft and Huaxin, making it one of the few cities in the Northeast capable of consistently attracting young talent to emerging industries. With the establishment of the Dalian Area of the China (Liaoning) Pilot Free Trade Zone in 2017 and recent advancements in the China-Japan-ROK Local Economic Cooperation Demonstration Zone, Dalian has consistently served as the bridgehead for Northeast China's engagement with Northeast Asia.
Sustained openness has yielded significant innovative results. By 2025, Dalian was home to over 10,000 technology-based enterprises, and the number of high-value invention patents per 10,000 people had increased by more than 75% over five years. From 2020 to 2024, the number of high-tech enterprises in Dalian grew from 2,475 to 5,300, an increase of over 114%, while the intensity of全社会研发投入 (R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP) reached 3.21%, making it the only city in the Northeast to exceed 3%.
Behind these impressive figures are numerous success stories. For instance, last year, a team led by Professor Yu Xiaozhou at Dalian University of Technology developed an open-source HarmonyOS-based operating system for aerospace applications, which was successfully deployed on a satellite platform for the first time. This provided a new option for global spacecraft operating systems, breaking foreign technological monopolies.
Nevertheless, this does not mean the development gap between Dalian and other advanced Chinese cities has disappeared. Challenges remain, particularly regarding talent and demographic structure. The population aged 60 and above accounts for 24.71% of Dalian's residents, while those aged 65 and above make up 16.87%, indicating a high degree of aging and a tight labor supply. However, 2025 saw a key positive shift: the retention rate of local university graduates in Dalian jumped to 65%, meaning two out of every three graduates chose to stay in the city. Yet, from an overall employment perspective, unless the city can continuously create high-quality jobs, this "demographic dividend" may be difficult to sustain.
Calculated based on 2025 data, Dalian's per capita GDP was approximately 132,600 yuan. While this leads the Northeast, it ranks low among China's sub-provincial cities and lags significantly behind eastern developed cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou. This reflects underlying structural constraints: a relatively large but slowly growing population dilutes per capita output, while underdeveloped high-value-added service industries limit further growth in per capita GDP.
Furthermore, Dalian's regional coordination capabilities need strengthening. Its synergy with hinterland cities like Shenyang and Changchun is far from achieving the deep industrial chain integration seen among core cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions. In 2025, Dalian Port's container port performance index ranking jumped to fourth globally, indicating a significant upgrade in port capabilities. Dalian also showed noticeable growth in the export of high-value-added products, particularly new energy vehicles. However, a substantial portion of goods passing through Dalian Port still consists of raw materials and primary products from the wider Northeast region, reflecting the long road ahead for regional industrial synergy and value-added enhancement.
The root causes of these gaps lie firstly in the similar industrial structures within Northeast China, leading to prevalent homogeneous competition and a lack of orderly division of labor and collaboration mechanisms. Although there is regional consensus on this issue and efforts are being made, the capacity for rapid problem-solving has not yet been fully cultivated. As the Northeast's only major seaport, Dalian's radiating and driving capacity is also hampered by insufficient integration of the regional industrial ecosystem. Secondly, the interconnectivity of infrastructure, including transportation, logistics, and information networks, requires further enhancement. Acknowledging these gaps is the starting point for Dalian to seek breakthroughs in its next phase of development.
Dalian's GDP surpassing one trillion yuan carries the profound expectation for the overall revitalization of Northeast China. Against a backdrop of persistent population outflows, an aging industrial structure, and insufficient investment confidence, Dalian's path to the trillion-yuan mark was not built on a real estate bubble or financial speculation. Instead, it was forged through the tangible achievements of building massive ships and developing green petrochemicals. In 2025, Dalian's actual utilized foreign capital increased by 43.8% year-on-year, with 286 new foreign-invested enterprises established. Multinational giants like Panasonic, Toyota, and Samsung have expanded their presence in the city. This has shattered the stereotypical notion that "investment does not cross the Shanhaiguan Pass," proving that this old industrial base still possesses the capacity for self-renewal and upward breakthrough.
However, the revitalization of the Northeast cannot rely on a single top performer alone. Currently, Shenyang's GDP has reached 910.03 billion yuan, just a step away from the trillion-yuan mark. Changchun is expected to exceed 800 billion yuan, progressing steadily based on FAW and its rail transit industry. Harbin remains in the 600 billion yuan range; despite advantages in aerospace and equipment manufacturing, its momentum transformation requires more time. The three provinces and four major cities exhibit a clear "stepped" development pattern, with Dalian standing at the top. But if Dalian is content with its own lead and fails to drive synergistic development with its hinterland, then the trillion-yuan achievement will be an isolated peak rather than part of a high plateau.
The key to breaking the impasse lies in Dalian's reorientation. Automotive parts from Jilin and high-end agricultural machinery from Heilongjiang are largely exported via Dalian Port. In 2025, the "Changchun-Dalian Port" sea-rail intermodal train service began regular operations, providing a stable channel for FAW's suppliers. Agricultural products like corn, soybeans, and edible fungi from Heilongjiang are also exported to Japan and South Korea via Dalian's cold chain logistics. The problem, however, is that these goods often merely "pass through" Dalian rather than "integrating" into its economy. Jilin's parts rarely enter Dalian's local supply chains for new energy vehicles or shipbuilding, and Heilongjiang's agricultural machinery has not formed technological linkages with Dalian's intelligent control systems or marine engineering equipment.
Deeper obstacles stem from institutional barriers. The Dalina Area of the Liaoning Pilot FTZ has introduced over 540 institutional innovations, including facilitative measures like cross-border capital pools, bonded maintenance, and intelligent RCEP origin verification. However, these policies are, in principle, applicable only to enterprises registered within the zone. For example, if a smart manufacturing company from Harbin needed to perform bonded maintenance on its products within Dalian's comprehensive bonded area, it might face difficulties due to "not being registered in Dalian" or "having a different supervising customs authority." Invisible barriers created by属地监管 (territorial supervision) persist, preventing the benefits of the free trade zone from spilling over to a wider area.
In the next step, Dalian's mission is not to become the "Shenzhen of the Northeast." It does not need to replicate southern models but should use itself as an "interface" to connect the Northeast to national and global high-value cycles. Reaching one trillion yuan is not the finish line but the starting point of greater responsibility.