Gold Market Trend Analysis
On August 26th, gold underwent range consolidation yesterday. Early trading saw a minor rally from around 2371 levels, touching 2372 before quickly retreating. During Asian session, prices reached a low of 2359 before oscillating upward. U.S. trading session saw highs near 2376 before closing lower, with the daily candlestick ultimately closing around 2365, forming a spinning top pattern with a lower shadow slightly longer than the upper shadow.
Gold's early morning perfect bottoming and recovery represents a positive signal. There's no need to focus on short-term profits when considering medium-term targets. After the early recovery, the low point becomes the dividing line between bulls and bears. Gold continues its bullish trend with the overall upward pattern remaining unchanged. As long as support at 2350 below holds, there remains upside potential. However, if 2350 is unexpectedly breached, prices may return to the consolidation range.
Current market focus is entirely concentrated on Federal Reserve September rate cut expectations. While the specific magnitude of rate cuts remains variable, rate cuts have become a foregone conclusion. Here's the key logic: the larger the rate cut, the greater the pressure on U.S. banking system capital outflows, and the more prominent gold's safe-haven attributes become. In this clear market environment, gold prices will inevitably be continuously pushed higher. What can be determined is that before rate cut policies are implemented, gold's bullish trend will not change. Therefore, our focus this week is not on determining direction, but on closely observing the sustainability of the upward movement.
Comprehensively speaking, today's gold short-term trading approach should focus primarily on buying on pullbacks, with selling on rebounds as secondary. Above, short-term focus should be on 2385-2400 resistance levels, while below, attention should be paid to 2350-2340 support levels.
Trading Strategy: Buy on pullbacks to 2355-2360, defend below 2350, target 2385-2395.
Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis
U.S. crude oil market opened yesterday at 64.46 before initially declining. Daily lows reached 64.19 before prices strongly rebounded. Daily highs touched 65.76 before consolidation, with the daily close at 65.41, forming a large bullish candlestick with equal upper and lower shadows.
From a daily chart perspective, after consecutive bearish closes halted, crude oil formed a narrow range bottom. Oil prices gradually moved above minor moving averages but remain overall suppressed, with medium-term subjective trend pointing downward. From a momentum perspective, MACD indicators formed a golden cross below the zero axis, indicating weakening downward momentum signals. Medium-term crude oil trends are expected to maintain high probability of downward movement.
Short-term (1H) crude oil trends showed a deep pullback wave, ultimately finding support and rising to new highs, touching near 63.70. The moving average system supports oil prices upward, with short-term objective trend direction pointing up. Early trading saw oil prices consolidating in a narrow range at high levels, with intraday crude oil trends expected to continue the upward rhythm.
Comprehensively speaking, today's crude oil trading approach should focus primarily on buying on dips, with selling on rallies as secondary. Above, short-term attention should be on 66.0-67.0 resistance levels, while below, focus should be on 63.0-62.0 support levels.
Trading Strategy: Buy on pullbacks near 63, defend 62.2, target 65.1 with continuation potential of 0.5-1 dollars upon breakout. Consider reversing to short positions near 66.