On February 25th, the A-share fertilizer sector saw another surge. By the market close, shares of multiple listed companies, including Chuanjinnuo, Chitianhua, Yuntianhua, Chengxing Co., and Liuguo Chemical, had hit the daily limit-up.
From a pricing perspective, the fertilizer market is experiencing a broad-based price increase. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, compared to late January, the prices of urea, phosphate fertilizer (55% monoammonium phosphate), potash fertilizer, compound fertilizer (potassium phosphate compound fertilizer, 45% NPK content), and pesticides all rose in early February 2026. Urea prices increased by 20.6%, phosphate fertilizer prices by 2.5%, potash fertilizer prices by 14.8%, and compound fertilizer prices by 19%.
Analyzing this round of price increases, Yu Xiaoming, a senior investment advisor at Shaanxi Jufeng Investment Information Co., Ltd., attributed the rise to three main factors: rising raw material costs, tightening global supply, and the concentrated release of demand for the spring ploughing season. Specifically, the continuous price increase of raw materials like sulfur and phosphate ore has directly driven up the production costs of products such as urea and phosphate fertilizers. Production restrictions in major international producing countries, export controls, and geopolitical factors have led to a tight global supply of potash and phosphate fertilizers. Coupled with the arrival of the peak season for fertilizer preparation for the domestic spring ploughing, the concentrated release of rigid demand has created a supply-demand mismatch, further supporting the price increase and ultimately leading to a widespread rise in terminal fertilizer prices.
Looking ahead to the full year of 2026, Guo Shuhua, a urea analyst at Longzhong Information, expects that spot prices for phosphate fertilizers will remain volatile at high levels. The price trend will depend on multiple factors, including changes in raw material costs, adjustments in supply and demand structure, and policy direction.
Regarding the potash fertilizer market, Guo Shuhua stated that national guidance policies will be a consistent theme throughout 2026. Major potash suppliers will sign long-term agreements directly with downstream factories to ensure supply. However, small and medium-sized chemical enterprises will still have certain demand, and the dual-track pricing system in the market is expected to continue.
For the compound fertilizer market, Guo Shuhua believes that ensuring supply and stabilizing prices will remain the core focus for the industry in 2026. Meanwhile, with the gradual release of new production capacity, seasonal fluctuations in downstream demand, and ongoing volatility in raw material costs, the compound fertilizer market is projected to operate under the influence of multiple intertwined factors and resonating dynamics.
It is noteworthy that the national level has already made early arrangements to ensure fertilizer supply and price stability. A notice issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on February 5th outlined measures to guarantee the supply of raw materials for fertilizer production and stabilize output. Specific measures include promoting stable phosphate ore production and maintaining reasonable price levels; supporting relevant phosphate fertilizer producers in accelerating the construction of phosphogypsum acid-making projects; encouraging the priority supply of domestic sulfur directly to phosphate fertilizer producers; and urging domestic phosphate fertilizer producers to actively supply the domestic market, particularly by strengthening production and supply during the spring ploughing season. Industry associations are to coordinate production and sales linkages between sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer producers to stabilize upstream and downstream purchasing relationships.
With the spring ploughing season approaching, several listed companies have stated they will adopt various measures to ensure fertilizer supply.
A representative from Salt Lake Co. stated that the company's production operations are running efficiently, and they are going all out to ensure market supply and meet customer demand. As a leading enterprise in the domestic potash fertilizer industry, the company consistently regards "price stability and supply assurance" as a core responsibility and a demonstration of its role as a central state-owned enterprise. Through scientifically optimized production planning, enhanced logistics coordination across the entire chain, and coordinated resource allocation, the company is fully committed to ensuring the supply of potash fertilizer for the spring ploughing season and other key agricultural periods, effectively maintaining stable market operations, and solidifying the foundation for agricultural production fertilizer supply, thereby implementing the national food security strategy through concrete actions.
Li Ruixue, Board Secretary of Zangge Mining, mentioned that as the critical period for spring ploughing preparation is currently underway, Zangge Potash Fertilizer, an important domestic potassium chloride producer, has proactively planned and scientifically deployed its operations. Leveraging its 724-square-kilometer mining right in the Qarhan Salt Lake in Qinghai, the company is fully utilizing its production capacity while ensuring safety to provide a solid guarantee for market supply. In terms of supply coordination, the company maintains close collaboration with strategic partners such as Sino-Agri Group and Sinofert, precisely aligns with market demand, optimizes shipping plans, and strengthens logistics scheduling to ensure the efficient and timely delivery of potassium chloride products to end-users, effectively meeting the fertilizer demands of the spring ploughing season.