Disney is set to release its Q3 2025 earnings report before the U.S. market opens on August 6th.
According to Bloomberg's consensus forecast, the company's revenue is expected to be $23.68 billion, up 2.27% year-on-year; adjusted net profit is anticipated to be $2.686 billion, down 3.47% year-on-year; adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $1.47, up 5.76% year-on-year.
Q2 Disney delivered an impressive performance:
Revenue of $23.62 billion (+7%), adjusted EPS of $1.45 (+20%), both beating expectations.
Streaming business profitability for the first time overall (operating profit of $336 million), Disney+ users increased to 126 million (beating expectations by 1.4 million).
Theme park business domestic U.S. revenue growth of 9%, significant contribution from cruise capacity expansion.
Full-year guidance significantly raised: EPS forecast jumped from "high single-digit growth" to +16% ($5.75).
Subscriber growth and ARPU increase:
Q2 Disney+ users increased by 1.4 million to 126 million, management expects a "slight increase" in Q3.
Pricing strategy: Hulu and Disney+ package prices raised, combined with increased ad layer penetration, driving ARPU growth.
Password sharing crackdown: Charging for account sharing ($7/month) starting in August, key variable is whether it can effectively convert "free-ride users."
Content supply effect:
"Moana 2" and "Mufasa: The Lion King" continue box office momentum, but Q3 lacks new IP of equivalent scale.
ESPN+ new fall subscription service under preparation, may signal release in advance.
Domestic U.S. parks:
Revenue grew by 9% last quarter, summer peak season bookings "not affected by competitors' new parks."
Watch whether per capita spending (tickets + derivatives) remains high, may be squeezed by inflation.
International parks:
Shanghai and Hong Kong Disney revenue declined by 5% in Q2, sluggish consumer recovery in China still a drag.
Abu Dhabi new park announced (2025-2026 landing), strengthening long-term growth narrative.
Cruise business: Continued release of new capacity from "Disney Treasure," but need to watch fuel cost pressure.
Impact of Hulu equity acquisition: $438.7 million expenditure directly reducing Q3 net profit, but consolidating control over streaming.
Capital return: $1.8 billion in stock repurchases in Q2, watch for Q3 ramp-up.
Geopolitical risk: Trump's administration intends to impose a 100% tariff on overseas films, potentially impacting content production costs.
Multiple institutions hold positive expectations for Disney's upcoming Q3 earnings report, especially optimistic about the continued recovery and profitability of its streaming and theme park businesses.
JPMorgan raised Disney's target price from $130 to $138 and maintained an "overweight" rating, reflecting confidence in the company's core business growth prospects.
UBS is also optimistic about Disney's performance, forecasting Q3 EPS to reach $1.59, up 13% year-on-year; full-year EPS is expected to reach $5.89, up 17% year-on-year. This institution also raised the target price to $138 and maintained a "buy" rating.
Overall, analysts generally believe Disney is likely to achieve steady growth driven by the enhanced profitability of its streaming platform and the recovery of park visitor numbers. However, some market voices remain cautious about risks such as global economic uncertainty, weak consumer spending, and intensified streaming competition.
As for investment advice, if this quarter's earnings exceed market expectations, especially with strong performance in Disney+ and park businesses, the stock price may have further upside in the short term. However, investors still need to closely monitor changes in the global economic environment, international market performance, and the company's long-term strategic execution to fully assess its medium and long-term investment value.
This content is generated based on Tiger AI and Bloomberg data and is for reference only.
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