CMB International released a research report stating that, considering weaker drug sales performance in 2025, it has adjusted its profit forecast for CSPC PHARMA (01093) and lowered the target price from HK$13.93 to HK$13.05, based on a discounted cash flow valuation, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. CMB International expects CSPC PHARMA's net profit for 2026 to 2028 to be RMB 5.706 billion, RMB 5.62 billion, and RMB 6.97 billion respectively, compared to RMB 3.876 billion in 2025.

CSPC PHARMA's total revenue in 2025 fell 10.4% year-on-year to RMB 26 billion, primarily impacted by volume-based procurement and prescription controls. However, core domestic sales are bottoming out and are expected to stabilize in 2026. Concurrently, the company has transformed into a global innovative pharmaceutical firm, consistently securing out-licensing deals, which can serve as a persistent engine for revenue growth. Benefiting from a differentiated pipeline, the bank anticipates that recurring business development income will drive long-term growth.

The report indicated that, excluding licensing fee revenue, CSPC PHARMA's drug sales in 2025 decreased 20.8% year-on-year, mainly due to the ongoing effects of hospital prescription controls and volume-based procurement. However, drug sales in the second half of the year increased 4.9% compared to the first half, showing signs of a bottom. As the pressure from volume-based procurement subsides, domestic drug sales in 2026 are expected to be largely flat. Sales expenses decreased significantly by 25.4% year-on-year to RMB 6.5 billion, reflecting a structural reduction in marketing efforts post volume-based procurement, while R&D expenses increased 12% year-on-year to RMB 5.8 billion.