The key figure behind Moscow's so-called shadow fleet has regained control of his oil trading business following recent geopolitical developments involving Iran. This individual, previously facing significant challenges, has managed to sell large quantities of crude oil that were previously stranded at sea.

Identified as part of Russia's shadow fleet, the tanker "Long Beach Island" was boarded and inspected by French forces last year. Etibar Ayyub, a central figure in Moscow's shadow operations and a top oil trader, found his fortunes reversed after recent military actions against Iran. Mr. Ayyub's vessels had previously faced inspections by French personnel and attacks by Ukrainian drones.

After the United States imposed sanctions on his primary client, Russian state-owned oil giant Rosneft, India substantially reduced its imports of Russian crude. Ships controlled through Mr. Ayyub's network of shell companies were left adrift carrying millions of barrels of unsold oil.

Within two weeks, refineries in India and China began purchasing this stranded crude to compensate for supply disruptions caused by closures in the Persian Gulf. The United States initially granted India a 30-day exemption to purchase the Russian oil, later extending this permission to all countries.

Mr. Ayyub, a 47-year-old seasoned Azerbaijani trader, holds controlling interest over much of this crude. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he has become a pivotal figure in Russia's petroleum export market. As Moscow's leading oil salesman, he annually secures buyers for over $50 billion worth of crude and petroleum products. Sources indicate he controls up to one-third of the approximately 600 vessels transporting Russian oil globally.

According to insiders, Igor Sechin, CEO of Rosneft and a close associate of Mr. Ayyub, had planned to travel to India to discuss oil exports with government officials and refinery executives. A Rosneft executive commented, "We haven't opened the champagne yet because nobody knows where this war will lead us, but our export volumes have increased dramatically in a very short time." A competing trader remarked that Mr. Ayyub had effectively been given a second life.

This turnaround demonstrates how recent military actions have undermined Western efforts to pressure Russia into peace negotiations with Ukraine by targeting shadow fleet operations and restricting Russian oil revenue. Oil analysts previously anticipated Russia would need to reduce production due to weakening demand. Instead, Russia now anticipates unexpected financial gains.

Traders familiar with recent sales reveal that India has purchased over 30 million barrels during the past two weeks for delivery this month and next, with additional transactions expected soon. Most of these deals are handled by Mr. Ayyub and his affiliates. These purchases will restore India's Russian imports to pre-sanction levels seen last autumn and significantly reduce the 150 million-barrel surplus that accumulated at sea before recent Middle Eastern hostilities.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated, "Russia is prepared to increase market supply." Following this reversal of fortune, Russia's primary Urals crude grade now trades nearly at par with global benchmarks, whereas it previously traded at a discount approaching 20%.

Some Western officials believe Moscow's financial reliance on Mr. Ayyub's export network represents a vulnerability in Russia's war economy. However, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, the only practical way to balance global oil supply with demand is to allow Russian crude handled by Mr. Ayyub to reach international markets.

Mr. Ayyub was sanctioned by the United Kingdom in May last year, by the European Union in December, and by Canada this February. Sources indicate that while the U.S. government has not yet taken action against him, he remains under investigation by the Department of Justice for potential sanctions evasion. Prosecutors from the Eastern District of New York are considering charges including money laundering and wire fraud.

Mr. Ayyub could not be reached for comment. Following EU sanctions, he previously stated, "I have never engaged in any illegal or improper conduct." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized the exemptions as providing "no significant economic benefit to the Russian government," noting their short duration and application solely to oil already in transit.

Russia has long depended on intermediaries to sell its oil. Before the Ukraine conflict, several international commodity giants dominated this trade, with Moscow playing them against each other to secure optimal prices. After the conflict began, these firms ceased dealings with Russian oil.

Insiders say Mr. Ayyub emerged during this chaotic restructuring, outmaneuvering competitors to secure nearly all of Rosneft's shipping business and handling additional crude from other Russian producers.

The bespectacled intermediary began his career as a junior trader at Dubai-based Coral Energy in 2014, rising to become deputy to founder Tahir Guliyev. Known for his aggressive style, he established a small trading unit for Coral in Moscow. Following Russia's military action in Ukraine, Mr. Ayyub and Mr. Guliyev reportedly struck a secret agreement with Mr. Sechin to take over business previously handled by Rosneft's pre-war partner, Swiss-based Trafigura. Sources indicate that former Trafigura CEO Jeremy Weir and Moscow representative Jonathan Kollek recommended Coral as a replacement.

A Trafigura spokesperson confirmed the company has not purchased Russian crude since May 2022. Coral, attempting to maintain relationships with European banks and insurers, sought to distance itself from Mr. Ayyub's trading activities. However, sources and Western officials note their operations remained deeply intertwined, with the network's internationally-facing components able to hedge price fluctuations on commodity exchanges. The UK's National Crime Agency later identified Coral as a key hub in the Russian oil market.

The firm, later renamed 2Rivers, expressed being "shocked" by related allegations and stated its compliance with international sanctions. Mr. Guliyev's lawyer stated in February that his client "has not been involved in any oil business since late 2022."

Initially, Moscow attempted to reestablish a multi-trader system similar to its pre-war structure, pitting Mr. Ayyub against competitors including Pakistani trader Murtaza Lakhani. As these traders competed, Russian oil prices recovered, and Rosneft found new buyers, particularly in India.

Mr. Ayyub ultimately outperformed all rivals, outbidding companies like Mr. Lakhani's at auctions held at Rosneft's Moscow headquarters and cultivating a close relationship with Mr. Sechin. Fluent in Russian and raised during the Soviet era, Mr. Ayyub frequently visited the Putin ally's hunting lodge, attended his birthday celebrations, and vacationed with him in the Maldives.

Operating from a Moscow office building, Mr. Ayyub travels on two private jets acquired from an Estonian businessman, journeying to the Middle East, Africa, and India to negotiate sales and redirect Russian crude originally destined for Europe.

Sources reveal that Rosneft executives previously supported the appointment of a trader from Mr. Ayyub's organization as CEO of an Indian refinery joint venture partly owned by Rosneft. Mr. Ayyub eventually absorbed Mr. Lakhani's remaining operations, including shadow fleet vessels active in Venezuela, secured additional contracts for Russian and Iraqi crude, and increased his stake in an Arctic exploration project led by Mr. Sechin.

A Rosneft spokesperson stated the company prohibits use of the shadow fleet, citing environmental, safety risks, and violations of navigation rules. The spokesperson also claimed that firms mentioned in inquiries, including Coral, were not Rosneft contractors.

Pressure on the shadow fleet intensified last autumn when the U.S. sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil. Russian energy officials reported critical shortages of onshore and offshore storage capacity, leading Rosneft to consider production cuts. Once oil field output is reduced, restoring previous production levels becomes uncertain.

Chinese refineries, sensing Moscow's vulnerability, demanded the largest discounts since 2022 to purchase crude handled by Mr. Ayyub. Just before recent Middle Eastern hostilities, the UK sanctioned dozens of companies within Mr. Ayyub's network.

Redwood Global, a company linked to Mr. Ayyub, was the largest single exporter of Russian oil early this year. In January, this UAE-based firm chartered the tanker "Range Vale" to ship Russian crude via the Baltic Sea. Shipping data showed the 21-year-old vessel drifting aimlessly for over a month before changing course for India's largest refinery operated by Reliance Industries following military action against Iran. The tanker discharged its cargo on March 8. Reliance executives and sources stated the conglomerate maximized its purchases of Russian oil after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.