在十年来首次中央城市工作会议后,中国承诺转向建设宜居、可持续和韧性城市,彻底告别曾推动经济腾飞的快速扩张模式。官方媒体新华社报道,为期两天的会议由习近平主席主持,高层领导人一致认为城市化正从高速增长向稳定发展阶段过渡。
过去,以建设为导向的城镇化策略虽刺激经济增长,却导致"鬼城"泛滥、房地产投机盛行和债务飙升。新华社援引会议内容指出:"城市发展正从大规模扩张转向提升存量质量和效率。"2015年上届会议启动大规模棚改,曾提振楼市但加剧价格泡沫。如今,分析师警告,房地产供过于求、需求疲软,已无力重复类似刺激。该行业曾占经济活动的四分之一,但四年前崩溃后持续拖累增长,政府实现年增5%目标面临挑战。
六月新房价格创八个月最大单月跌幅,呼吁更多市场支持之声日盛。然而会议未提供快速解决方案,强调"稳步推进"城中村改造。澳新银行高级策略师邢兆鹏分析,新范式下房地产将从经济驱动力转变为结果体现,短期内政策难改市场颓势。
数十年来,火热城镇化推动中国崛起为全球第二大经济体,城市建设拉动了钢铁、水泥等全球需求。但内陆城市盲目扩张造成资源错配,沿海地区人口涌入加剧失衡。新策略将协调大中小城市及小城镇发展,聚焦绿色低碳建设:严格限建超高摩天楼,强化防洪系统,并坚持以人为本导向。
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