During the week of August 11-15, domestic bulk commodity futures showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate and palm oil leading gains while European container shipping rates led declines. The ferrous metals and base metals sectors experienced minor fluctuations.

In the domestic futures market, the energy and chemical sector saw fuel oil decline 2.71% for the week, crude oil drop 0.71%, while lithium carbonate surged 12.92%. The ferrous metals sector showed coke falling 0.26%, coking coal rising 0.24%, and iron ore gaining 0.32%. Base metals saw Shanghai silver decline 0.80%, Shanghai nickel drop 0.48%, and Shanghai copper rise 0.73%. Agricultural products recorded live hogs down 1.66%, soybean meal up 1.39%, and palm oil jumping 5.11%. In shipping, European container rates fell 4.35%.

**Lithium Prices Volatile as Production Halts Drive Price Increases**

This week, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.,Ltd. (CATL) confirmed on its investor relations platform that the Jianxiawo mine ceased operations due to expired mining permits, sparking market concerns over lithium carbonate supply and driving significant price increases.

On the supply side, the Jianxiawo mine shutdown has created market uncertainty about whether the other seven mining companies with unexpired permits will also halt operations. Additionally, Qinghai CITIC Guoan Salt Lake's production suspension means supply-side disruptions remain unresolved.

Current lithium mine shutdowns in Yichun have limited immediate impact due to spodumene production line supplements and processing plants' existing raw material inventories. Weekly lithium carbonate output reached new highs, maintaining supply pressure. Chile exported approximately 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China in June, with overseas supply pressure relatively light in July.

Chile's lithium carbonate exports totaled 20,900 tons in July 2025, up 43% month-over-month and 4% year-over-year. Exports to China reached 13,600 tons, rising 33% monthly but declining 13% annually.

On the demand side, July saw new energy vehicle and lithium battery demand growth rates slow somewhat, though demand remained at high levels. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units respectively, up 26.3% and 27.4% year-over-year. Power battery installations totaled 55.9 GWh, down 4.0% monthly but up 34.3% annually. Lithium iron phosphate battery installations were 44.9 GWh, representing 80.4% of total installations, declining 5.3% monthly but surging 49.0% annually.

Furthermore, as the second-half peak season approaches, automakers will begin stocking up in August, driving demand for power cells. Subsidy policies in Australia and Europe for home energy storage are spurring overseas demand growth, with energy storage demand maintaining strong momentum.

Regarding inventory, domestic stocks saw minor destocking this week. Domestic lithium carbonate weekly inventory stood at 142,256 tons, down 162 tons (-0.1%) from the previous week, with inventory mainly flowing from processing plants to downstream segments. Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate registered warehouse receipts continued recovering to over 20,000 tons.

Chaos Tiansheng Research Institute noted that overall, the lithium carbonate supply-demand balance has not sufficiently improved. Before supply-side disruptions materialize, lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain volatile swings. If production cuts are confirmed, prices may have further upside potential. However, if spodumene production line output continues rising to offset reductions, prices could face corrections.

**Market Volatility Expected to Intensify**

Minmetals Futures analysts similarly believe the supply side will be the market focus in the near term, with sentiment swings from news flow significantly outweighing fundamental changes. Rising lithium prices will incentive hard rock resource supply from Africa and Australia to fill domestic mining gaps, though the extent of domestic lithium carbonate destocking remains to be observed.

Current capital market uncertainty is high, suggesting speculative funds should remain cautiously observant. Lithium carbonate holders may time market entry based on their operational needs, while monitoring supply chain information and market sentiment.

Haitong Futures analysts mentioned that beyond implemented production cuts, the next key milestone is the September 30 deadline for reserve verification report submissions. During this period, attention should focus on smelter production changes, which will increase market volatility.

From a long-term perspective, overseas lithium mines continue raising 2026 fiscal year production targets while further reducing unit FOB cash costs. Combined with new domestic projects coming online, large-scale mica-side production cuts that drive price increases would attract spodumene production line output releases (currently at 66% weekly utilization), creating upward pressure resistance for lithium carbonate prices.