**Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis:** On February 19th, during the Asian trading session, the price of gold stabilized and rebounded near $4960. This follows a shift in market sentiment towards caution due to geopolitical uncertainties, leading to renewed safe-haven inflows into the precious metals market. The US Vice President indicated that Iran has failed to respond to key US demands, with the US administration giving Tehran a two-week window to bridge differences. Concurrently, US President Donald Trump has retained the option to use military force should diplomatic efforts fail. The current trajectory for gold suggests that if the US dollar continues to rebound, supported by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, the upside potential for gold prices may be limited. Ahead of the release of US economic data, gold is likely to maintain a pattern of high-level consolidation. Caution is advised regarding rapid fluctuations driven by news developments. The core dynamic remains the tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations. Should tensions in the Middle East persist, safe-haven buying could push gold prices to retest the $5000 mark.
**Gold Technical Analysis:** On the daily chart, although yesterday closed with a bearish retracement, recent sessions have shown an alternating pattern of bullish and bearish closes, with the closing price repeatedly oscillating around the middle Bollinger Band as a central axis. Today's intraday session saw a strong series of bullish candles, making a daily close in positive territory almost certain. The closing price is highly likely to approach the middle band near $4985, or may do so tomorrow, suggesting that the $5000+ level will be tested repeatedly. The upper channel line has shifted to $5040. A point of regret is that recent analyses, including weekly videos and reports, highlighted key buying zones near $4832 and below, but the market did not provide an opportunity, with the lowest dip reaching only $4844. There are indications that $4844 may have marked a short-term bottom for the decline from the recent high of $5119, as it is near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior upward move at $4832. Therefore, the pattern for the coming days is expected to be a gradual strengthening through consolidation. The ascending triangle formation remains intact; a sustained break above $5100 is needed to open the door for a more significant upward move.
On the hourly chart, gold found support at $4953 in the early morning and rallied consecutively, exhibiting a minor trending pattern. During the European session, it faced resistance near yesterday's last breakdown point at $4944, showing signs of stagnation and sideways movement, which led to a corrective pullback. This pullback was successfully traded. While $4910 was identified as a potential support level (a prior resistance turned support), where a stable bounce could lead to a continued rally, a more conservative approach was taken, waiting for a dip closer to the hourly moving average around $4900 or below to attempt long positions. This resulted in missing the move, as the low was $4906. With the price now breaking above the intraday high again, the strategy for the evening session is to look for buy-on-dip opportunities. Key support levels to watch are around $4940 (prior resistance turned support) and $4924 (near the 61.8% Fibonacci level or short-term moving averages). Resistance targets are at the next breakdown point near $4970, followed by $4990-$5000, approaching the resistance line of the red channel's secondary trendline. In summary, the recommended short-term trading strategy for gold today is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance lies in the $5030-$5080 zone, while key short-term support is found in the $4920-$4870 range.
**Latest Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis:** During the Asian session, crude oil extended its gains, trading around $65.07. Brent crude returned above $70, marking the first time it has breached this key psychological level in over two weeks. International oil prices strengthened significantly in the previous session, coming within reach of the year's highest closing price. The energy sector rallied in tandem, indicating a phase of improved risk appetite in the market. The core driver behind the oil price increase is the escalation of geopolitical tensions. The essence of this rally is a rapid repricing of risk premium, rather than a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics. Potential risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz provide significant upside potential for market sentiment, although diplomatic negotiations continue, leaving the possibility of supply returning on the table. Technical factors are aligning with fundamental drivers, creating resonance that supports a near-term bullish bias. However, in event-driven markets, volatility is often intense and direction can change rapidly. Close attention should be paid to geopolitical developments and negotiation progress.
**Crude Oil Technical Analysis:** On the daily chart, crude oil is gradually forming a potential rounded top pattern. Price action shows K线 beginning to be pressured by the short-term moving averages, suggesting a slightly bearish consolidation bias. The price is currently oscillating near the previous support zone, but the strength and persistence of the rebound have been limited. There is a risk of a minor breakdown on the daily chart that could lead to a continuation of the downward trend. On the hourly chart, the trading range has compressed significantly. The focus is on the short-term adjustment and consolidation phase. In summary, the recommended trading strategy for crude oil today is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is seen in the $66.5-$67.5 range, while key short-term support lies in the $64.0-$63.0 zone.