U.S. Treasury Market Declines as Oil Price Surge Weighs, Yield Curve Steepens

Deep News
12 hours ago

U.S. Treasuries faced pressure during the American trading session, weighed down by rising oil prices. Traders balanced optimistic expectations of a potential extension to the U.S.-Iran ceasefire against the persistent disruption to shipping from the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Long-dated bonds led the decline, driving the 2s10s spread and the 5s30s spread wider. Trading volume in futures remained significantly below average levels.

Shortly after 3 p.m. New York time, yields across the U.S. Treasury curve were up by 1 to 3 basis points. The 2s10s spread and the 5s30s spread widened intraday by 1 basis point and 1.2 basis points, respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield approached its session high towards the close, rising approximately 2.5 basis points to 4.31%.

The sell-off in Treasuries developed gradually throughout the day but accelerated after WTI crude oil surpassed $95 per barrel. Although the oil price advance moderated slightly in the afternoon, the downward pressure on Treasuries persisted.

Trading volume in Treasury futures remained low. As of 3 p.m. New York time, volume was approximately 65% of the 20-day average, while SOFR futures volume was about 35% to 60% of typical levels.

As of 3:32 p.m. ET, the 2-year Treasury yield was 3.7716%. The 5-year Treasury yield was 3.9096%. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.3053%. The 30-year Treasury yield was 4.9285%. The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries was 53.35 basis points. The yield spread between the 5-year and 30-year Treasuries was 101.71 basis points.

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