The Hong Kong Trade Development Council has substantially revised its trade outlook, sharply upgrading its forecast for Hong Kong's merchandise export growth in 2026 to 42% to 47%, primarily in light of global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related technology exceeding expectations.
Meanwhile, the newly released HKTDC Export Confidence Index for the third quarter of 2026 shows that despite persistent geopolitical uncertainties, the confidence of Hong Kong exporters has remained broadly positive. The "Current Index" came in at 51.8, while the "Expectation Index" stood at 51.3, with both readings above the 50 boom-or-bust dividing line.
Pang Ming, Research Director of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, said that Hong Kong has recorded strong export growth this year, driven mainly by the rapid rise in global demand for AI-related products and infrastructure. Demand growth for semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, telecommunications equipment and other advanced electronic products has surpassed expectations, providing significant support for Hong Kong's exports.
Electronics have continued to serve as the primary engine of export growth, accounting for about 80% of Hong Kong's total exports in the first eight months of 2026. During that period, electronics exports grew 52.8% year-on-year, a pace clearly outstripping overall exports. Major export markets include Mainland China, ASEAN and the United States, reflecting strong demand across the global technology supply chain.
Zhao Yongchu, Deputy Research Director of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, said that exports of various traditional electronic components have continued to perform strongly. The regional production network spanning the Chinese and ASEAN economies remains highly active, driving vibrant intra-Asian trade flows. At the same time, export performance across many traditional industries has remained broadly stable, reflecting that overseas demand still exists and that consumption in major markets remains resilient.
The ASEAN region continues to be one of Hong Kong's most dynamic export markets, with exporters maintaining firmly positive confidence in the ASEAN and Chinese markets. High-tech manufacturing in the mainland has remained in expansion territory, further supporting demand for electronic components and related intermediate products.
Hong Kong's exports to the United States have continued to demonstrate strong resilience, rising 63.4% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026. Pang Ming said that although the latest Section 301 tariff measures have brought a certain degree of uncertainty for businesses, the direct impact on Hong Kong's exports is expected to be limited. A large portion of Hong Kong's exports to the United States is exempt from tariffs, especially technology and electronic products.
HKTDC research shows that Hong Kong's exports are increasingly concentrated in high-value, technology-intensive products such as integrated circuits, computer components and advanced telecommunications equipment. These products are gradually replacing traditional, lower-value bulk commodities as important drivers of export growth.
Zhao Yongchu noted that Hong Kong is now handling a growing share of products that are small in size but extremely high in value, often combining air freight services to overseas markets with land transport linking Hong Kong to China's manufacturing centers. This transformation reflects Hong Kong's gradual evolution from a traditional trade gateway into a high-value-added international trade and supply chain management hub.
Looking ahead, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council expects Hong Kong's exports to benefit for the remainder of 2026 from the resilience of global demand for technology products, as well as support from manufacturing and trade activity in other major markets such as China and ASEAN, and to maintain solid growth momentum.