Minmetals Securities released a research report highlighting silicon carbide (SiC) as a key enabler of technological upgrades and efficiency revolutions. As a core material in third-generation wide-bandgap semiconductors, SiC boasts superior properties such as a wide bandgap, high breakdown voltage, excellent thermal conductivity, and fast electron saturation drift velocity. These attributes are driving its widespread adoption in four high-growth industries: new energy, AI, communications, and AR. Its applications extend from power devices to thermal management materials and optical substrates, fueling explosive demand and heralding an era of rapid industry expansion.

Key insights from Minmetals Securities include:

**New Energy Sector**: SiC is pivotal for energy efficiency. By 2030, global demand for SiC substrates (6-inch equivalent) from "EVs + charging piles + solar/storage" is projected to reach 5.77 million wafers, with a CAGR of ~36.7%. In EVs, the adoption of 800V high-voltage platforms is accelerating, with penetration expected to hit 11.17% by 2025. SiC MOSFETs in inverters and DCDC converters can reduce vehicle energy consumption by 8–10%. The report estimates global EV-related SiC substrate demand at 4.32 million wafers by 2030 (China: 3.28 million). For high-power DC charging piles, policy support will drive deployment to 100,000 units by 2027, with SiC’s high-voltage tolerance being critical. Global demand for charging pile substrates is forecast at 510,000 wafers (China: 290,000). In solar/storage, SiC enhances inverter and converter efficiency, with global demand reaching 940,000 wafers (China: 300,000).

**AI Industry**: SiC benefits from dual growth in power and thermal management. Data centers face rising power density due to computing demands, with SiC used in UPS, HVDC, and SST power equipment. Global demand for power substrates is projected at 730,000 wafers by 2030 (China: 200,000). Additionally, SiC’s role in advanced packaging as a thermal solution for GPUs could drive demand for interposer substrates to 6.2 million wafers globally (China: 1.73 million). If SiC is adopted in CoWoS packaging for substrates and heat sinks, demand could triple.

**Communications & RF**: 5G-A and 6G are upgrading RF devices, with GaN-on-SiC emerging as the mainstream due to its thermal and high-frequency performance. Global demand for semi-insulating SiC RF substrates is estimated at 170,000 wafers by 2030 (China: 100,000, 60% share).

**AR Industry**: SiC’s high refractive index makes it ideal for optical waveguides, enabling wider fields of view and solving rainbow-effect issues. Global AR glass substrate demand is forecast at 3.89 million wafers (China: 1.37 million).

Explosive demand is expected to strain supply, with a projected tight balance by 2027 and a potential 12-million-wafer global shortage by 2030 against 2025 supply levels. AI interposers, EVs, and AR glasses will dominate demand, accounting for 37%, 26%, and 23% respectively. If SiC is fully industrialized in advanced packaging (substrates, interposers, and heat sinks), global substrate demand could reach ~30 million wafers by 2030.

**Risks**: 1. Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and supply chain constraints. 2. Lower-than-expected downstream demand. 3. Delays in R&D, tech iteration, or market adoption—e.g., SiC’s use in advanced packaging remains high-risk due to unresolved technical pathways. 4. Intensifying industry competition.