周三公布的消费者价格数据显示,潜在通胀趋势有所降温。然而,这些数字恐怕难以给美联储官员带来多少安慰——他们对通胀加速的担忧正日益加剧。
美联储采用另一套指标追踪通胀,即个人消费支出价格指数。该指数五月数据需待本月晚些时候公布。但由于其计算公式纳入了本周发布的多份通胀报告数据,经济学家得以相当精确地预测结果。
结合今日出炉的生产者价格数据,目前许多经济学家预测,剔除食品和能源价格的核心PCE通胀率上月可能升至3.4%,高于四月的3.3%。这将是自2023年末以来的最高水平。若官方发布的数据证实这一预测,美联储官员将更难论证通胀正处于缓解轨道之上。
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