Oil traders attempting to forecast this year's crude price trajectory are confronted with starkly divergent assessments of supply and demand prospects, ranging from a massive supply surplus to a roughly balanced market. The world's three primary forecasting bodies—the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)—have all updated their projections, yet the chasm in their views persists, with the two consumer-focused agencies presenting a fundamentally different outlook from the producer group. The IEA projects the largest supply surplus—exceeding 4 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026, with a full-year average surplus of over 3.7 million barrels per day. The EIA's assessment is not far off, forecasting that supply will outstrip demand by more than 2.8 million barrels per day this year, peaking in the current quarter at over 3.5 million barrels per day. In contrast, calculations based on OPEC data suggest the market will be much closer to equilibrium, with supply exceeding demand by only about 600,000 barrels per day on average for the year. These latest projections reaffirm the long-standing, fundamental divergence in stance among the three agencies, which have historically held vastly different views on oil market supply-demand balances. Because neither OPEC nor the IEA directly forecasts OPEC's production levels, these future supply-demand gaps are necessarily built upon specific assumptions. In its report, the IEA uses the current OPEC+ production agreement as the baseline for future supply and applies this same methodology to analyze OPEC's data to generate the chart above. Its analysis also assumes that oil production from three countries not part of the agreement—Iran, Libya, and Venezuela—will remain stable at their approximate December level of 5.4 million barrels per day. A key reason for the differing outlooks stems from the agencies' contrasting views on oil demand and its growth. The IEA's demand forecast for 2026 is slightly below 105 million barrels per day, approximately 1.5 million barrels per day lower than OPEC's projection. This gap has gradually narrowed since last August: over the past five months, the IEA has increased its demand forecast by 540,000 barrels per day, while OPEC's assessment has remained unchanged. The IEA's more optimistic revision from its previous view stems from its expectation that economic conditions will normalize after the turbulence caused by actual tariff implementations and threats dampened consumption in 2025. The IEA currently anticipates global oil consumption will increase by 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, yet this growth rate is still only about two-thirds of the increase projected by OPEC analysts. The EIA's judgment on demand growth falls between the other two agencies. However, the divergence is not merely about differing views on this year's growth momentum; it also reflects deeper, long-standing historical differences. OPEC analysts believe that since 2023, oil demand has grown at an average annual rate of 1.3%, broadly consistent with the pre-pandemic long-term trend. The EIA projects a slightly lower average annual growth rate of 1.2%. This has led to a widening gap between the EIA's and OPEC's demand assessments: from a difference of about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.7 million barrels per day this year. The divergence between OPEC and the IEA is even more pronounced. Their estimates for 2023 demand differed by only 200,000 barrels per day, but by 2026, this gap has widened to over 1.5 million barrels per day. The IEA contends that the average annual growth rate for oil consumption between 2023 and 2026 will be just 0.9%, significantly below the historical average. All three agencies continuously revise their demand forecasts and even adjust their assessments of historical consumption levels.