Major financial events scheduled for August 18-24, 2025 (all times in Beijing time):

Key Focus: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, Federal Reserve July monetary policy meeting minutes release, and potential US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral summit.

Additionally, August LPR rates will be announced. The 2025 China Computing Power Conference will be held. Alphabet will host a launch event for new Pixel hardware products. Eurozone August manufacturing PMI preliminary data will be released.

On the earnings front, over 1,000 A-share companies will disclose their 2025 interim reports, including major firms across various sectors. Meanwhile, 370 Hong Kong-listed companies will release semi-annual results, including POP MART, Baidu, and other prominent companies. In the US market, major retailers and other corporations will announce their financial results.

**Financial Events**

**Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium scheduled for August 21-23**

The Jackson Hole symposium continues to attract significant attention. Powell is not expected to reveal September's interest rate decision at Jackson Hole. Instead, his speech will focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework assessment, which is conducted every five years.

Recent data shows that US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth was moderate, while the employment market showed signs of cooling, strengthening market expectations that the Fed may cut rates in September. According to Atlanta Fed data, markets see a 62.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with even a 22.5% chance of a 50 basis point reduction.

However, some analysts remain cautious about this outlook. They believe Powell may use this speech to "pour cold water" on overly aggressive market rate cut expectations. Some hawkish Fed officials, including Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, have already voiced concerns, stating they need clearer understanding of tariff impacts on inflation before deciding on rate cuts.

"What we need to focus on now is... whether (Fed officials) will push back against market expectations," said Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management:

"We expect Fed officials who don't support September rate cuts to also speak publicly. If they think the market is wrong, they will speak up because they have a responsibility to guide market expectations to cool down."

The Federal Reserve faces a policy dilemma. On one hand, tariff measures have led to higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) growth, indicating accumulating imported inflation risks; on the other hand, cooling employment markets and manufacturing weakness add to economic downward pressure.

Meanwhile, President Trump continues to pressure for rate cuts and is reportedly considering replacement candidates. Powell's Fed Chair term expires in May next year.

Markets will closely watch three key signals in Powell's speech: - Clear stance on September rate cuts: Whether Powell will hint that cuts are a done deal or try to leave room for no cuts - Latest economic outlook assessment: How the Fed views employment market resilience and inflation risks - Nature of rate cuts: If cuts occur, whether the Fed positions them as preventive adjustments or signals of responding to economic recession

**Potential US-Russia-Ukraine Trilateral Meeting?**

According to reports, following the Russia-US leaders' Alaska meeting, President Trump stated on the 16th that he will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House Oval Office on the afternoon of the 18th Eastern Time. If all goes well, a trilateral meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine leaders will be arranged next. Zelensky expressed support for the trilateral meeting proposal. Putin did not mention the trilateral meeting during his Kremlin meeting on the 16th.

The Washington trip on the 18th will be Zelensky's first visit to the US since meeting Trump at the White House in February this year. Zelensky stated they will discuss "all details" of ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sources indicate that after being "shut out" of the Alaska meeting, European leaders have been invited to Washington for meetings with Zelensky and Trump on the 18th.

According to Axios, two sources said Trump hopes to arrange a trilateral meeting with Putin and Zelensky as early as August 22nd, though this has not been officially confirmed by the US.

Additionally, President Trump stated on the 15th that he and Putin "basically reached agreement" on the US providing some form of security guarantees to Ukraine during their meeting that day.

Reports suggest that in Trump's call with Zelensky, Russia expressed hopes that Ukraine would hand over the Donbas region to Russia in exchange for a Russian ceasefire commitment.

**Federal Reserve Releases Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes**

At 02:00 Beijing time on August 21st, the Federal Reserve will release complete minutes from the July 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

At the Fed's monetary policy meeting two weeks ago, the Fed announced it would maintain the federal funds target range at 4.25-4.50%, but rare public disagreement emerged: Board members Waller and Bowman voted against, advocating for an immediate 25bp rate cut. This highlights how Fed policymakers' consensus is fracturing when discussing tariff impacts on the economy and inflation.

The minutes may reveal discussions behind the voting: Besides the two dissenters, how many other participants showed "dovish turns" in internal debates? What conditions did the majority supporting rate maintenance attach? These details will determine the policy threshold for the September meeting.

Recent employment and price performance in July has led markets to view "September rate cuts" as highly probable, but what truly determines whether FOMC can press the rate cut button in September lies in officials' "re-examination" of June data in the July minutes. If officials acknowledge in the minutes that June employment already showed cooling and inflation moderation, then July data merely confirmed their concerns, making September cuts nearly certain; if they remained optimistic about June, July data will be viewed as "single-point noise" requiring more time to confirm, leaving September cuts uncertain.

**State Council Information Office Press Conference**

The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 AM on August 19th (Tuesday) as part of the "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" themed series. National Sports Administration Director Gao Zhidan will introduce achievements in sports power construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and answer questions.

**120 Billion Yuan 1-Month Treasury Cash Deposit Tender**

The Ministry of Finance and People's Bank of China will conduct a tender for the 2025 Central Treasury Cash Management Commercial Bank Fixed Deposit (Phase 8) from 9:00-9:30 AM on August 18th through the PBOC Central Treasury Cash Management Commercial Bank Fixed Deposit Business System. This operation involves 120 billion yuan for a 1-month (28-day) term, with value date August 18th and maturity September 15th (extended if holidays occur), conducting rate tenders among participating banks.

**Hang Seng Indices Company Announces Q2 Review Results**

Hang Seng Indices Company Limited will announce the 2025 second quarter Hang Seng Index Series review results on August 22nd, 2025. Constituent stock changes will officially take effect on Monday, September 8th, 2025.

**2025 China Computing Power Conference**

The 2025 China Computing Power Conference will be held August 22-24 in Datong, Shanxi. This year's conference, themed "Computing Network Foundation, Intelligence-Driven Future," will invite relevant department and provincial leaders, representatives from basic telecom companies, chip companies, computing power companies, industry experts, research institutions, and universities to strengthen exchanges and cooperation and contribute to high-quality development of the computing power industry.

**Alphabet Launch Event for New Pixel Hardware**

According to reports, Alphabet has officially confirmed the Pixel launch event date: August 20th, 2025. Alphabet stated the event will be held at 1 PM Eastern Time in New York, where the company will showcase "the latest Pixel phones, watches, earbuds and other products."

At the launch event, Alphabet is expected to introduce new Pixel smartphone series, including the base Pixel 10. Rumors suggest the Pixel 10 will feature three cameras instead of two, plus upgraded Pixel 10 Pro and Pixel 10 Pro XL versions. Alphabet may also showcase a fully dust-proof Pixel 10 Pro Fold.

For other devices, rumors suggest Alphabet's Pixel Watch 4 may feature a larger battery with a slightly thicker body. Regarding Pixel Buds, few details have leaked, but reports indicate Alphabet is preparing another affordable Pixel Buds 2a earphone model.

A core change is that Alphabet Gemini AI is no longer a passive-response AI assistant but will become a "platform-level intelligent agent" throughout the entire system. Therefore, Alphabet may showcase various Gemini applications on phones at the launch event.

**Economic Indicators**

**Eurozone August Manufacturing PMI Preliminary**

The Eurozone showed economic resilience in July, with PMI index reaching near one-year highs. Growth was mainly driven by the three-year manufacturing recession nearing its end, while the service sector unexpectedly accelerated growth. Meanwhile, German private sector activity maintained expansion for the fifth consecutive month, with manufacturing showing recovery signs and services stabilizing; France's economy continued shrinking due to ongoing political deadlock, with deteriorating business confidence.

Regarding inflation, Hamburg Commercial Bank economist Cyrus de la Rubia noted that service sector inflation cooling is "good news" for the European Central Bank. However, he warned: "A strong euro and US tariffs may exert downward rather than upward pressure on inflation in coming months."

Goldman Sachs stated that driven by five factors - public investment waves, leading positions in emerging industries like pharmaceuticals and green technology, financial market reforms, institutional framework improvements, and deepening internal markets - Europe is experiencing an important development opportunity window. The bank raised its real GDP level forecast for the Eurozone through end-2027 by 1.2%.

**China August 1-Year and 5-Year Loan Prime Rates (LPR)**

Current 1-year LPR stands at 3.0%, while 5-year+ LPR is at 3.5%. Orient Securities Chief Macro Analyst Wang Qing believes:

"Looking ahead, external environment still faces great uncertainty in the second half. In the process of vigorously boosting domestic demand and 'making greater efforts to promote real estate market stabilization and recovery,' LPR quotes still have room for reduction."

**Earnings Reports**

**POP MART**

POP MART recently announced that POP MART International Group Limited expects revenue for the six months ended June 30th, 2025, to potentially increase by no less than 200% compared to the same period in 2024 (corresponding to revenue of no less than 13.67 billion yuan); the Group's profit for this period (excluding uncompleted fair value changes of financial instruments) may increase by no less than 350% compared to last year's same period (corresponding to net profit of no less than 4.34 billion yuan).

Morgan Stanley recently issued a research report noting that POP MART's platform value may be underestimated. The company sells products in four regions, with most proprietary IPs originating from Greater China area, only Crybaby from Thailand and Peach Riot from the US. The bank believes POP MART has potential to tap art resources from the US, Europe, Japan and Southeast Asia, expecting its IP and product portfolio to become more diverse in the next 3-5 years. POP MART's intrinsic value far exceeds its owned IPs, a point underestimated by the market. The bank maintains "Overweight" rating and target price of HK$365, equivalent to 46x predicted PE ratio for this year.

**Baidu**

According to latest quarterly earnings preview data from Chaoyang Perpetual, the market holds cautious attitudes toward Baidu's second quarter performance. Forecast data shows Baidu's quarterly operating revenue is expected between 32.693-34.521 billion yuan, with year-over-year changes ranging from -3.6% to 1.7%. Meanwhile, both net profit and adjusted net profit face significant year-over-year declines, with net profit expected between 3.014-4.111 billion yuan (down 25.1%-45.1% year-over-year); adjusted net profit expected between 3.956-6.290 billion yuan (down 15.0%-46.5% year-over-year).

Despite profitability challenges, markets will closely watch whether Baidu can exceed expectations after earnings disclosure, which is crucial for judging future stock price trends.

Dongwu Securities maintains "Buy" rating for Baidu in its latest research report, noting the company's strong Q1 2025 performance with operating revenue and Non-GAAP net profit both exceeding market expectations. This benefited from active AI field deployment and business expansion.

Key highlights include: - AI Agents: Outstanding performance in advertising business, with related revenue growing 30x year-over-year, accounting for 9% of Baidu's core online marketing revenue - Intelligent Cloud Business: Continued high-speed growth with Q1 2025 revenue up 42% year-over-year, with generative AI and foundation model-related revenue achieving triple-digit growth - Intelligent Driving Business: "Apollo Go" automated driving orders exceeded 1.4 million, up 75% year-over-year, expanding to overseas markets including Dubai and Abu Dhabi

Dongwu Securities believes that despite short-term profitability impacts from continued AI investment and customer acquisition costs, the company's AI progress and resulting business growth establish solid foundations for long-term development. Additionally, continued share buybacks totaling over $2.1 billion further enhance shareholder returns.

**Additional Major Earnings**

Several other major companies will report earnings this week, including major retailers and technology companies. Market attention will focus on how these companies navigate current economic conditions and their guidance for the remainder of 2025.

The week ahead promises significant market-moving events across monetary policy, geopolitics, and corporate earnings, with the Jackson Hole symposium likely serving as the primary catalyst for market direction.