[Management View]
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) reported a 5% increase in global shipments and a 21% rise in revenue from The Americas, significantly boosting adjusted EBITDA beyond initial targets. The company highlighted strong performance in North America, driven by innovation and consumer demand in energy drinks, sparkling water, and soft drinks. Management emphasized the resilience of their business amidst macroeconomic uncertainties and noted that recent capacity additions in Europe are sufficient for near-term growth.

[Outlook]
Management upgraded full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $705 million–$725 million, reflecting improved performance and favorable currency movements. They maintained global shipment growth expectations of 3%–4% for 2025. Future expansion will focus on optimizing existing facilities, avoiding costly new projects.

[Financial Performance]
- Global shipments grew 5% YoY.
- Adjusted EBITDA increased by 18% YoY, surpassing guidance.
- Europe revenue rose 9% to $615 million, with shipments up 1%.
- The Americas revenue increased 21% to $840 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 34%.
- North America shipments grew 8%, while Brazil shipments rose 12%.

[Q&A Highlights]
1. Question: What are the expectations for North American volumes in the second half of the year?
Answer: North American volumes have been strong, particularly in soft drinks, energy drinks, and sparkling waters. The first half exceeded expectations, but a slight reduction is anticipated in the second half. The market remains healthy, with sustained growth expected due to innovation and sustainability credentials.

2. Question: Can you elaborate on the capacity constraints in Europe, particularly with CSD?
Answer: Europe experienced weaker beer volumes, but strong growth in soft drinks, especially in energy drinks and CSD. Capacity constraints in certain can sizes limited growth, impacting 1-2 points of potential growth. The market remains healthy, with a 3% growth prediction for the year.

3. Question: What drove the better-than-expected performance in The Americas, and is there a risk of a drop-off?
Answer: Strong promotional activity and innovative new drinks contributed to the performance. While the first half was exceptionally strong, continued growth is expected in the second half, albeit at a slightly reduced rate.

4. Question: What are the expectations for European performance in the second half and 2026?
Answer: Europe faced specific geographic and category challenges, with weaker beer markets and adverse weather. Despite this, long-term trends remain positive, with cans gaining market share and sustainability credentials improving.

5. Question: Are there any regions where capacity adjustments are needed?
Answer: No capacity decreases are planned. Europe is tight in certain can sizes, and capacity additions are being evaluated. North America and Brazil have room for growth within existing capacities.

6. Question: How did aluminum timing impact European costs, and will it be recovered in Q3?
Answer: Timing effects were concentrated in Q2 due to tariff announcements and currency impacts. Recovery is expected unless further price movements occur.

7. Question: What are the major factors affecting the back half guidance?
Answer: Caution is due to macroeconomic uncertainties and cost headwinds in Europe. Brazil and North America are expected to see some slowdown in growth rates.

8. Question: How are energy market dynamics affecting CSDs, and is there cannibalization?
Answer: No significant trade-off is observed between energy drinks and CSDs. Both categories are experiencing growth, driven by innovation and strong market players.

9. Question: Are there any manufacturing efficiencies contributing to performance?
Answer: Improved operational costs and efficiencies in both North America and Europe have contributed to performance. Manufacturing efficiency targets are part of the company's guidance.

10. Question: What is the status of contract negotiations for 2026 and 2027?
Answer: 2026 volumes are largely contracted, with good visibility for 2027. The company is progressing through post-COVID contract renewals.

11. Question: Is the company well-positioned for future growth in Europe?
Answer: The company is ramping up capacity and expects to manage growth within existing forecasts. Future expansions will focus on brownfield projects.

[Sentiment Analysis]
Analysts expressed a positive tone, acknowledging strong results and strategic capacity management. Management maintained a cautious yet optimistic outlook, emphasizing resilience and adaptability.

[Quarterly Comparison]
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 |
|-------------------------|---------|---------|
| Global Shipments Growth | 5% | N/A |
| Adjusted EBITDA Growth | 18% | N/A |
| Europe Revenue | $615M | N/A |
| The Americas Revenue | $840M | N/A |
| North America Shipments | 8% | N/A |
| Brazil Shipments | 12% | N/A |

[Risks and Concerns]
- European business faces cost headwinds from input costs.
- Adverse weather in Europe affected beer can sales.
- Macroeconomic uncertainties and normalizing volumes in Brazil and North America pose risks.

[Final Takeaway]
Ardagh Metal Packaging delivered a strong Q2 performance, driven by robust growth in The Americas and strategic capacity management. Despite challenges in Europe, the company remains optimistic about future growth, supported by innovation and sustainability trends. Management's cautious approach to the macroeconomic environment and cost pressures reflects a balanced strategy to sustain long-term performance.