Abstract

Red Rock Resorts will release fiscal fourth-quarter results on February 10, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates company guidance, consensus indicators, and recent institutional commentary to frame expectations for revenue, margins, net income, and adjusted EPS alongside segment dynamics since January 01, 2026 to February 03, 2026.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, Red Rock Resorts’ projections point to revenue of $502.60 million, an estimated year-over-year increase of 2.31%, with EBIT at $148.09 million and EPS at $0.61, each accompanied by estimated year-over-year growth of 1.12% and 35.44%, respectively; no explicit guidance was found for gross margin or net margin, though the last reported gross margin was 67.30% and net margin was 8.88%. The main business is expected to remain casino-led, with stable local demand and normalized promotional intensity; management emphasis implies continued operational discipline across gaming, food and beverage, and rooms. The most promising segment centers on core casino operations, supported by local-market visitation; last quarter casino revenue registered $319.49 million, and the company expects modest year-over-year growth in this pillar.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Red Rock Resorts reported total revenue of $475.57 million, a gross profit margin of 67.30%, net profit attributable to the parent company of $42.25 million, a net profit margin of 8.88%, and adjusted EPS of $0.68, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 83.78% and revenue up 1.61%. Operating execution remained firm, with EBIT at $131.48 million and tight cost control underpinning resilient cash generation despite a promotional environment typical of the Las Vegas locals market. Main business highlights included casino revenue of $319.49 million, food and beverage revenue of $85.52 million, and rooms revenue of $41.57 million, all supported by steady visitation; development fees and other revenue contributed $3.89 million and $25.10 million, respectively.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Casino Operations

Casino remains the dominant revenue driver and the key determinant of quarter-to-quarter earnings variability. Coming off a baseline of $319.49 million in last quarter casino revenue with a healthy 67.30% gross margin at the total-company level, the current quarter setup suggests a stable demand environment in the Las Vegas locals segment, supported by consistent visitation and manageable promotional intensity. Management attention to table and slot yields, alongside focused loyalty programs, typically provides incremental efficiency gains in win-per-unit metrics. A sequential uptick in EBIT to $148.09 million in the forecast highlights potential operational leverage if gaming volumes hold and marketing spend remains disciplined. Risks predominantly revolve around variability in high-margin slot play, a shift in mix toward lower-yield promotional activity, and calendar timing effects tied to holiday periods, which could modestly skew hold rates and volumes. Given the estimate of EPS at $0.61, the casino segment’s performance will likely anchor earnings delivery; sustained retention of local patrons and measured reinvestment rates can help protect margins.

Food and Beverage

Food and beverage, with last quarter revenue at $85.52 million, serves both as a standalone contributor and a complementary driver of gaming engagement. The segment’s trajectory is closely linked to traffic patterns across casino floors and entertainment offerings; stable throughput of patrons often translates into consistent table turns and average check growth. Cost control in labor and sourcing, coupled with curated menu pricing, can buffer margin pressures from inflationary inputs, particularly in protein and produce categories. The current quarter forecast does not explicitly disaggregate segment-level margins, but overall EBIT strength implies that non-gaming operations are not expected to weigh disproportionately on profitability. Upside can come from special events and optimized venue utilization that lift spend per visitor. A risk remains in potential shifts toward value-oriented promotions that could compress unit economics if not offset by volume; however, Red Rock Resorts’ focus on local-market preferences tends to align offerings to repeat visitation patterns, supporting steady contribution.

Rooms

Rooms revenue of $41.57 million last quarter reflects a generally stable local-stay and out-of-town guest mix within the company’s portfolio. Average daily rate and occupancy dynamics are sensitive to event calendars and broader Las Vegas visitation, though Red Rock’s locals-oriented properties typically experience less volatility than Strip-focused assets. Pricing discipline, enhanced by targeted packages that tie lodging to gaming and dining experiences, can support steady RevPAR while preserving guest satisfaction and loyalty. In the current quarter, positive EBIT sequencing suggests rooms will continue to provide a reliable ancillary margin stream without aggressive discounting. Risks include competitive pricing moves from nearby properties and any softening in discretionary travel; mitigants involve maintaining loyalty benefits and ensuring service consistency that encourages repeat stays.

Development Fees and Other

Development fees of $3.89 million and other revenue of $25.10 million last quarter are relatively small but can add variability through timing of projects and miscellaneous income streams. While not central to the earnings thesis, these lines can create minor quarter-to-quarter noise in reported revenue and margins. The forecasted EBIT increase indicates corporate overhead remains controlled, and contributions from these categories should not materially alter the earnings trajectory. Any incremental development activity would require updates from management, but within the current preview window, expectations lean toward stability rather than expansion-driven spikes in non-core revenue.

Factors Most Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter

The primary swing factor is the trajectory of casino volumes and the associated win rates, which directly influence EBIT and EPS relative to estimates. A second driver is the margin profile: investors will scrutinize whether gross margin can stay near the recent 67.30% level and if net margin remains close to the last quarter’s 8.88% amid promotional dynamics. Finally, capital allocation updates—such as buyback activity, dividend stance, or development pipeline updates—can shape sentiment, especially if management signals a balanced approach to reinvestment versus returns. Surprises on EPS, where the current quarter estimate is $0.61 with robust year-over-year growth of 35.44%, would likely be the largest catalyst, given the local-market stability narrative underpinning the story.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary within the specified window has tilted constructive. Susquehanna reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $69.00, Truist Financial maintained a Buy with a price target of $70.00, and Citizens JMP reaffirmed a Buy with a price target of $65.00, while Wells Fargo held a neutral stance with a Hold at a $58.00 target. The bullish-to-bearish ratio within qualifying opinions is 3:1 in favor of bullish views. The Buy-side argues that Red Rock Resorts’ local-market orientation supports steady revenue and margin resilience, with upside tied to disciplined promotional spend and stable visitation. Quotes from these institutions emphasize operational execution and local demand consistency, suggesting earnings delivery in line with, or modestly ahead of, EPS and EBIT forecasts if gaming volumes remain intact. The prevailing analysis expects the casino-led mix to continue anchoring profitability, supporting the current quarter’s EPS estimate of $0.61 and EBIT of $148.09 million, with room for incremental upside if segment-level volumes exceed internal pacing.