Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value, continued to hover around $69,000 during Tuesday's U.S. trading session and into early Wednesday Asian trading hours. A senior analyst from Compass Point suggested that following a recent wave of selling, the leading cryptocurrency may be approaching a bottom. Around the same time, Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald indicated that recent market selling pressure, driven by the unwinding of speculative and leveraged positions, could lay the groundwork for a short-term bottoming recovery and potentially a more constructive rebound trajectory in the near future.

Synthesizing the latest views from multiple research institutions, the probability of Bitcoin forming a price bottom has increased significantly. As selling pressure resets and "Bitcoin whales"—wallets holding over 1,000 BTC—begin to accumulate at lower prices, the stage is set for a new significant rebound, provided fresh capital inflows re-emerge from sources like spot buying, ETFs, long-term allocations, or a renewed rise in market risk appetite. However, questions remain about when such large-scale capital inflows will materialize and whether investors will regain conviction in building new long positions in Bitcoin.

The trend of Bitcoin whales providing support on the supply side by starting to buy on dips—for instance, on-chain data shows large wallets accumulated approximately 53,000 BTC over the past week—can indeed slow the pace of decline in the short term and fuel expectations of a near-term bottom. However, the return of demand remains narrow. Without new, substantial incremental demand, this activity resembles "damage control" rather than a genuine restoration of bullish conviction in Bitcoin.

Ed Engel, a senior analyst at Compass Point, stated in a report Monday evening, "We believe the crypto market is in a bottoming phase following last week's record panic-driven large-scale sell-off." Engel noted that investors realized losses of approximately $10 billion last week, marking the second-highest crypto loss record since June 2022. He added, "Such large-scale panic selling events typically occur during the final liquidation phase of a significant downtrend." However, Engel cautioned that crypto market downturns rarely see V-shaped recoveries and warned that Bitcoin could retest support levels around $60,000, or potentially even drop toward $55,000.

Since hitting a record high slightly above $126,000 in October, Bitcoin's value has declined by approximately 45%. This drop followed a surge in global risk-off sentiment, which forced leveraged investors to unwind positions and triggered heavy selling by major holders, leading to what some termed a "crypto winter." Selling intensified last week as the cryptocurrency fell below $61,000, recording its worst single-day drop since November 2022. This heavy selling also highlighted liquidity stress in the crypto market, creating a crisis of confidence for Bitcoin. Bitcoin's price staged a strong rebound last Friday but has since fluctuated around the $70,000 level.

Ethereum (ETH) also declined, nearing $2,000 on Tuesday and extending its year-to-date loss to around 30%, before hovering near that level during Wednesday's Asian session. On Monday, analysts from Wall Street firm Bernstein stated, "The bear case for Bitcoin is now at its weakest point in history." Analysts Gautam Chhugani and his team wrote, "The current price action in Bitcoin is merely a short-term confidence crisis. Nothing is broken, and no major skeletons are going to be uncovered." Chhugani expects Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs, projecting a super-bullish target of $150,000 by year-end.

Another prominent Wall Street firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, expressed firm confidence in a Bitcoin bottom in its latest bi-weekly macro market report. The firm believes recent market pressure may have set the stage for a short-term rebound and a healthier bottoming trend. They noted that the sharp sell-off triggered a broad de-risking and de-leveraging phase, significantly clearing market excess and large speculative positions. Cantor's analysts pointed to record trading volumes and significant outflows from the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the world's largest Bitcoin ETF, as evidence of panic selling and leveraged position unwinding, suggesting the market may have washed out most weak hands.

While acknowledging that its longstanding bullish crypto stance has been challenged in recent weeks, Cantor Fitzgerald views the current price action as increasingly resembling a "washout" rather than the start of a prolonged downtrend. Looking ahead, the firm emphasized that the macro and liquidity backdrop remains strongly supportive. It expects an easing monetary environment to be a defining theme this year, driven by the new Fed Chair's dovish stance and a more aggressive U.S. Treasury policy—developments seen as favorable for Bitcoin. Near-term liquidity tailwinds are also forming, including the end of quantitative tightening, expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, lower tax withholding starting January 1, and a significant rebound in tax refund disbursements. Additional support could come from mortgage market interventions and potential capital rotation, as weakening silver prices might redirect investor flows toward high-risk, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin. Overall, Cantor Fitzgerald believes a bottoming rebound is imminent, with the investment appeal of the cryptocurrency asset strengthening significantly in the coming months.

Latest statistics show Bitcoin has garnered new dip-buying support from some of its largest holders. However, the demand return remains sufficiently narrow to raise doubts about whether this signals a recovery in crypto market risk appetite or is merely a damage control maneuver by major holders. So-called "Bitcoin whale" wallets accumulated roughly 53,000 BTC over the past week, marking the largest buying spree since November, following weeks of heavy selling by these entities. This buying has helped stabilize prices after a significant pullback, even as most institutional investors remain on the sidelines.

Data from industry researcher Glassnode indicates that wallets holding over 1,000 BTC added over $4 billion worth of the cryptocurrency during this period, interrupting a months-long selling trend that had driven Bitcoin down about 40% from its October peak. "This does slow down any decline," said Brett Singer, head of market sales at Glassnode. "But we still need to see more money flow into the market." This caveat is important. Despite whales re-entering, broader trends still point to caution. Glassnode data shows that, excluding ETF and exchange flows, large Bitcoin holders have been net sellers over the past year; since mid-December, over 170,000 BTC—worth approximately $11 billion—has flowed out of these wallets.

Bitcoin's price action reflects this uneven support. After hitting a record high in October, the token slid to around $60,000 last week before rebounding to approximately $70,000. The stop-start behavior of large holders reinforces a persistent market question: who remains to drive the next sustained rally? Many investors who bought Bitcoin via newly launched ETFs are currently at a loss, making them hesitant to add aggressively. Meanwhile, public companies that had adopted Bitcoin as a reserve asset have slowed their purchases as their own stock prices face pressure.

In the absence of new demand sources, some Wall Street analysts suggest the recent accumulation looks more like damage control than a return of bullish conviction—a pattern that has supported short-term bounces in past cycles but rarely generates lasting momentum on its own. "We will buy again when the storm passes, as we took some profits before the end of last year," long-term crypto investor Bruno Ver said in an interview. "But for now, we are still in the storm." Glassnode's data tracks Bitcoin wallet clusters, which may include large private investors, crypto custodians, and institution-linked accounts, rather than individual traders. Past bottoming rebounds that eventually gathered stronger momentum were typically characterized by more consistent accumulation and broader participation across different types of crypto investors—features notably absent in the current downturn.

Judging from the dip-buying trend of Bitcoin whales and the latest relatively cautious views from Wall Street analysts, expectations for a significant Bitcoin rebound are indeed strengthening. However, a sustained uptrend still requires confirmation. The future trajectory for Bitcoin is more likely to be "grinding bottom—volatile recovery—then upward movement" rather than an immediate V-shaped reversal. While whale activity can slow the decline's slope in the short term, demand return remains narrow. Without new incremental demand, this resembles "damage control" more than a "return of Bitcoin bullish conviction."

The views from Compass Point, citing a "bottoming phase after record panic selling," and Cantor Fitzgerald, describing a "more constructive setup after a washout," point to the same underlying mechanism: liquidations and de-leveraging concentrate the release of marginal sellers, leading to a cleaner positioning landscape, which ultimately makes it easier for trading prices to stabilize within a range. What truly determines whether a "new rebound trend" can materialize is whether demand-side and liquidity-side factors can take over. Cantor's thesis—identifying a washout via IBIT flows and trading volumes and betting on a looser macro/liquidity environment—addresses the question of "who will buy." If marginal liquidity improves, spot/ETF flows turn net positive again, and risk appetite recovers, then upward elasticity could be greater given that "weak holdings have been cleansed."

Concurrently, some Wall Street analysts caution that this volatility is linked to broader risk sentiment and liquidation/liquidity expectations, such as the scale of Bitcoin position liquidations within 24 hours and the observation that "the process from bottom distribution to price reset often takes months, not weeks." This aligns with the expected time structure of a "Bitcoin price grind." Overall, the probability of a short-term trading bounce for Bitcoin is rising, but the medium-term trend remains in a "proof-of-concept" phase. Confirmation signals typically lie not in whether "whales are buying" per se, but in whether participation broadens: for instance, if whale accumulation shifts from "one-off support" to "consistent, stable net buying," if ETF/institutional flows turn from "waiting/net outflows" to "sustained net inflows," and if the price can form higher lows with lower volatility above key support levels. As long as these signals remain absent, the base case for Bitcoin's price trajectory is a brief rebound followed by range-bound trading and a slow recovery, while retaining a tail-path possibility of "testing key levels again before strengthening."