Abstract

Newmont Mining will announce quarterly results on February 19, 2026, Post Market; this preview summarizes the latest revenue and adjusted EPS projections for the to-be-reported quarter, reviews last quarter’s profitability metrics, highlights segment dynamics and key swing factors, and consolidates recent institutional views and target updates ahead of the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to Newmont Mining delivering approximately $6.14 billion in revenue, implying 19.19% year-over-year growth, with adjusted EPS around $1.97, implying 82.40% year-over-year growth; the modeled EBIT is about $3.23 billion, up 66.30% year-over-year, while no explicit gross or net margin guidance has been communicated for this quarter. In the core business mix, revenue remains primarily concentrated in gold, with by-product contributions from copper, silver, zinc, and lead expected to support blended profitability and cash conversion; operational focus remains on execution against cost, grade, and throughput plans. Copper remains the most promising earnings lever within the by-product suite, with last quarter’s copper revenue at $319.00 million providing a base from which incremental volumes and pricing can drive mix-enhanced margin capture.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Newmont Mining reported revenue of $5.52 billion (up 19.96% year over year), a gross profit margin of 62.45%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of $1.83 billion, a net profit margin of 33.16%, and adjusted EPS of $1.71 (up 111.11% year over year). Profitability stayed robust in absolute terms while quarter-on-quarter net profit exhibited a modest contraction, reflecting a measured pullback against strong sequential comparables and commodity-price variability. Gold remained the anchor of the portfolio with $4.67 billion in revenue, representing 84.52% of the total, while copper, silver, zinc, and lead contributed $319.00 million, $293.00 million, $191.00 million, and $52.00 million, respectively, underscoring diversified by-product cash flows alongside the gold engine.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Gold operations remain the primary earnings engine

Gold continues to underpin Newmont Mining’s quarterly earnings power, with the current-quarter revenue forecast of $6.14 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.97 embedding sensitivity to realized gold prices, grade profiles, and unit-cost execution. The last quarter’s 62.45% gross margin and 33.16% net margin provide a profitability baseline entering the print; directional changes in realized pricing and site-level cost performance will determine how much of the forecast uplift translates into operating leverage. The revenue mix indicates that structurally, gold’s contribution—at 84.52% in the prior quarter—remains dominant, so small changes in realized gold prices can create disproportionate swings in margins and earnings. Management’s cost discipline and throughput reliability at key complexes will be in focus, as even marginal dilution in grade or unplanned downtime can offset price tailwinds. Taken together, the consensus EPS uplift of 82.40% implied by $1.97 per share points to the market factoring in firm realized pricing and solid execution, but also leaves room for variance if price realizations or costs deviate from plan.

Copper as the most promising internal growth lever

Copper stands out within Newmont Mining’s non-gold suite as a scalable earnings contributor over the medium term and a nearer-term margin diversifier. Last quarter’s copper revenue of $319.00 million was a meaningful by-product stream, and incremental copper tonnage and price resilience can enhance consolidated margins due to favorable unit economics relative to certain gold ounces. The current-quarter EBIT estimate of $3.23 billion (up 66.30% year over year) implicitly assumes not only gold-price support but also improved by-product contributions, where copper is the most impactful lever. While segment-level year-over-year growth rates for copper were not disclosed, the strategic significance is apparent in how small base expansions can materially influence blended cash cost per gold-equivalent ounce and, by extension, gross margin capture. As investors parse the report, commentary on copper volumes, recoveries, and unit costs will be a focal point for assessing upside to the headline EPS trajectory and potential de-risking of future quarters.

Key stock-price swing factors into the print

Commodity-price realization remains the most immediate driver into and beyond the print, given gold’s outsized revenue share and the sensitivity of consolidated profitability to price volatility. Late January saw precious metal strength, including reports of spot gold reaching record territory and sharp one-day rebounds that buoyed gold miners; if realized prices for the quarter track better than the trailing average, positive variance versus the $1.97 EPS estimate is plausible. Conversely, a pullback in spot prices approaching the release, or a mark-to-market recalibration in realized prices, could compress the implied operating leverage that consensus has embedded. On operations, investors will scrutinize cost lines—fuel, consumables, labor, and maintenance—alongside grade mix and mill throughput to verify that the last quarter’s 62.45% gross margin remains sustainable under current input-cost conditions. The model-implied step-up to $6.14 billion in revenue also raises the bar for execution, as any disruptions or underperformance at large sites would have a visible effect on consolidated results. Finally, capital allocation remains relevant for valuation into the event: the company’s capacity for buybacks or balance-sheet optimization can influence per-share metrics and sentiment, particularly if management reiterates disciplined reinvestment thresholds and return frameworks that align with stronger cash generation.

Analyst Opinions

The recent flow of institutional updates since January shows a clear skew toward positive stances on Newmont Mining, with the majority of rating actions maintaining Buy/Outperform views and lifting price targets; neutral views are in the minority. Representative updates include RBC Capital maintaining an Outperform rating and lifting its target to $125, UBS maintaining a Buy rating and raising its target to $160, BMO Capital maintaining Outperform with a revised $145 target, Scotiabank reiterating Sector Outperform with a $152 target, Jefferies maintaining Buy with a $136 target, Goldman Sachs maintaining Buy with a $123.90 target, and Citigroup maintaining Buy with a $118 target; TD Cowen maintained a Hold with a $120 target, but such neutral stances were outnumbered by bullish calls. Across this January-to-early-February window, the ratio by action count leans heavily bullish—roughly nine Buy/Outperform updates to one Hold—reinforced by mentions of an Overweight/Buy-leaning consensus and a mean price target in the $125–$135 range in recent analyst roundups.

The analytical thread behind the majority view centers on three pillars. First, earnings torque from commodity-price realizations combined with stable operational performance underpins confidence in near-term EPS delivery; the $1.97 adjusted EPS consensus for the current quarter implies 82.40% year-over-year growth, and bullish analysts emphasize that execution on grade and cost can preserve a large portion of that uplift even amid day-to-day price volatility. Second, by-product and particularly copper contributions are increasingly material to blended margins, offering a pathway to sustain or expand gross profitability as site-specific optimizations take hold; this view is consistent with the EBIT estimate of $3.23 billion, up 66.30% year over year, reflecting both commodity support and improving operating leverage. Third, improved capital-return visibility—supported by stronger cash generation into the forecast horizon—features prominently in upgraded target prices, as per-share metrics benefit from reduced share count and optimized balance sheet positioning when commodity backdrops are favorable.

From a risk-balancing perspective within the bullish camp, analysts acknowledge that consensus assumes decent realized prices and smooth operational delivery, so deviations could still drive volatility around the print. However, given that last quarter’s revenue grew 19.96% year over year to $5.52 billion and margins landed at 62.45% gross and 33.16% net, the starting point for profitability into the current quarter appears robust. Bullish models thus frame the $6.14 billion revenue estimate, with 19.19% year-over-year growth, as attainable, hinging on realized pricing and unit-cost discipline rather than aggressive volume assumptions. As a result, the predominant institutional view into February 19, 2026 is that Newmont Mining is positioned to meet or modestly exceed the revenue and earnings trajectory embedded in consensus, with upside skew if commodity prints remain supportive through the reporting period.