According to a research report by GTHT, domestic heavy truck sales in February 2026 reached 74,000 units, representing a year-on-year decrease of 10% and a month-on-month decline of 30%. Sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks stood at 10,000 units, down 37% year-on-year and 45% month-on-month. Meanwhile, domestic new energy heavy truck sales totaled 11,000 units, up 5% year-on-year but down 48% month-on-month. The primary reason for the decline in heavy truck sales during February was the Spring Festival holiday, which began in mid-February—nearly 20 days later than in 2025. Industry practice indicates that the month containing the Spring Festival is typically a low season for heavy truck sales. Only after the Lantern Festival, when manufacturing resumes and drives the recovery of the freight industry, do strong vehicle purchasing demand and the traditional peak sales season for commercial vehicles emerge.
Key points from GTHT’s analysis include:
In terms of total volume, domestic heavy truck sales in February reached 74,000 units, falling 10% year-on-year and 30% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for January to February amounted to 179,000 units, up 17% year-on-year. The shift of the Spring Festival holiday to February was the main factor behind the decline in wholesale sales. The holiday began in mid-February 2026, nearly 20 days later than in 2025. As is customary in the industry, the month of the Spring Festival is a low season for heavy truck sales, with robust purchasing demand and the traditional commercial vehicle sales peak only returning after the Lantern Festival, when manufacturing and freight activities resume.
Focusing on natural gas heavy trucks, domestic sales in February were 10,000 units, down 37% year-on-year and 45% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for January to February reached 29,000 units, a 12% year-on-year increase. Sales of natural gas semi-trailer tractors in February were 10,000 units, declining 38% year-on-year and 47% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for the first two months totaled 28,000 units, up 12% year-on-year. The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in February was 14%, while the cumulative penetration rate for January to February was 16%. Based on calculations of the total cost of ownership over the lifecycle of heavy trucks, natural gas is generally more economical for tractors with an average annual mileage exceeding 150,000 kilometers. Supported by large-scale equipment renewal policies, natural gas heavy trucks, which offer lower operating costs, are expected to see further increases in penetration.
Turning to new energy heavy trucks, domestic sales in February reached 11,000 units, rising 5% year-on-year but falling 48% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for January to February were 31,000 units, up 54% year-on-year. The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in February was 14%, while the cumulative rate for the first two months was 17%. According to total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis, new energy heavy trucks achieve optimal TCO at annual mileages between 45,000 and 100,000 kilometers. With advancing technology and declining costs, new energy heavy trucks now possess intrinsic growth momentum. Penetration rates are expected to continue rising in 2026, with close attention warranted on the implementation of trade-in policies for new energy heavy trucks.
Investment recommendations: With the confirmation that heavy truck trade-in policies will continue in 2026, domestic sales for the year are projected to reach 760,000 units, down 5.3% year-on-year. Although the trade-in policy delivered significant results in 2025, leading to a high sales base, domestic logistics activity remains relatively healthy. Given the high replacement base from 2017 to 2021, the decline in heavy truck sales is expected to be limited. Overall, wholesale sales in 2026 are forecast to reach 1.16 million units, up 1.5% year-on-year, with exports likely to maintain growth. Recommended stocks include Weichai Power (000338.SZ), SINOTRUK (000951.SZ, 03808), Foton Motor (600166.SH), CIMC Vehicles (301039.SZ), and FAW Jiefang (000800.SZ).
Risks to consider include slower-than-expected economic growth and significant increases in raw material prices.