Gf Securities released a research report stating that the national unified power market system is accelerating its improvement, which will significantly enhance market participants, trading volume, and transaction complexity. It is recommended to focus on related targets in the software, hardware (new energy storage is expected to benefit from increased market volatility), and supporting sectors (grid operation control, matching transactions, and digital systems will undergo continuous upgrades). Against the backdrop of full market participation and the gradual realization of green value, hydropower, nuclear power, and pumped storage also deserve attention. The main views of Gf Securities are as follows:
Recent Event: The General Office of the State Council issued the "Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Power Market System," emphasizing the acceleration of establishing markets and pricing mechanisms adapted to the new energy system, and effectively achieving market-based allocation of power resources nationwide. First, the document carries high authority. Issued directly by the State Council, it signifies higher policy level and is expected to have stronger coordinated promotion. Second, it sets a 2035 target for the first time. Previously, the goal was to basically establish the national unified power market system by 2030. This document proposes that by 2035, the system will be fully established, with more mature and improved market functions, and a stable or increasing proportion of market-based transaction volume. Power resources will be fully optimized and efficiently utilized nationwide, and a unified national energy market system, primarily based on electricity with multiple energy sources cooperating, will be initially formed. Third, it clarifies the market composition and reform direction. A multi-dimensional market system will be constructed, including medium and long-term markets, spot markets, ancillary service markets, green power markets, capacity markets, and wholesale-retail markets. Among these, spot market construction is a near-term priority, with a clear requirement for basic formal operation by 2027; capacity pricing mechanisms are also being urgently improved and are expected to evolve into capacity markets. It is anticipated that the multi-dimensional value of power resources—energy, regulation, environmental, and capacity—will be fully reflected by the market. Fourth, it emphasizes national unification and smooth circulation. Vertically, it aims to integrate "intra-provincial + inter-provincial" trading, proposing for the first time that markets at all levels transition from "separate bidding and trading" to "unified bidding and joint trading." Horizontally, it seeks to strengthen coordination among various power markets, such as enhancing effective linkage between medium and long-term markets and spot markets in terms of trading periods and price limits, and accelerating the joint clearing of frequency regulation and reserve ancillary service markets with the spot market. Fifth, it clarifies full market participation for both generation and consumption sides. By 2030, the basic establishment of the national unified power market system is targeted, with all types of power sources and all electricity users (except guaranteed users) directly participating in the power market, and market-based transaction volume accounting for about 70% of total electricity consumption. Sixth, it promotes the participation of new energy in the power market in various forms, supporting the integrated market participation of all power sources in large "sand, Gobi, and desert" bases and encouraging distributed generation to participate through aggregated or direct trading models.
Risk warnings include potential deceleration in unified market construction due to power system safety and stability issues, cost pressures from the energy transition, and slower-than-expected implementation of provincial plans.