During Monday's Asian trading session, the international gold price extended its rebound, with spot gold (XAU/USD) rising to near $5,035 before pulling back. A generally weaker US dollar, combined with ongoing central bank purchases of gold, provided support for the precious metal, driving prices to recover further from recent corrective lows.
A significant factor pressuring the US dollar is heightened market concern over the Federal Reserve's independence. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently stated that a criminal investigation into the selection of the Fed Chair could not be ruled out under specific circumstances. This remark has sparked worries about the independence of monetary policy, continuing to weigh on the dollar's performance.
Against the backdrop of a weaker dollar, gold, which is denominated in dollars, has gained passive support, attracting some capital inflows. Simultaneously, central bank demand remains a crucial pillar supporting the medium-term outlook for gold prices.
Data shows that a major Asian nation's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month in January, raising its holdings slightly to 74.19 million ounces. As one of the world's largest gold consumers, its sustained accumulation of gold is viewed by the market as an endorsement of gold's long-term value, bolstering investor confidence in gold's allocation appeal over the medium to long term.
Regarding macroeconomic data, the market is focusing on the US January employment report due later this week. As the release of this data has been delayed, investors are maintaining a cautious stance ahead of its publication. Short-term trading is leaning more towards position adjustments rather than significant directional bets, contributing to a choppy characteristic in gold's rebound.
On the geopolitical front, recent developments in US-Iran relations have introduced a new variable. The Iranian President described talks with the US on nuclear issues as "a step forward," while the Iranian Foreign Minister emphasized that dialogue must proceed without threats.
The US side has also confirmed that a new round of meetings will take place early this week but simultaneously delivered a firm stance. This "mix of dialogue and pressure" has led to divided market assessments of the Middle East situation.
For gold, if US-Iran negotiations continue to yield positive signals, the geopolitical risk premium could further diminish, potentially weakening gold's safe-haven appeal. Conversely, if talks encounter setbacks, gold's defensive attributes could be reactivated. In the short term, gold prices are in a balanced phase, influenced by a mix of opposing factors.
From a daily chart perspective, after stabilizing from its retreat from historical highs, the gold price has initiated a technical rebound and is currently trading above $5,000, indicating underlying buying interest remains present. For immediate support, the first key level is the psychological and technical $5,000 mark. Holding above this level could help sustain the current recovery trend. The second support zone lies in the $4,950–$4,970 range; a decisive break below this area might signal a prolonged correction phase, potentially leading to further declines.
On the resistance side, the first hurdle is in the $5,050–$5,070 range, near previous rebound highs where short-term selling pressure is concentrated. A sustained break above this zone could open the path towards the next resistance near $5,150, corresponding to the previous record high area, which presents a significant challenge.
In terms of momentum indicators, the daily RSI has retreated from overbought territory to a more neutral level, suggesting previous excessive bullish sentiment has been partially alleviated, but no clear oversold signals have emerged. This indicates the current rebound is more corrective in nature, and gold prices may continue to oscillate within a $4,950–$5,150 range in the near term as the market digests conflicting factors.
The current rebound in gold prices primarily benefits from structural support provided by a weaker US dollar and persistent central bank buying. However, marginal changes in safe-haven demand are becoming a key variable influencing short-term direction. Progress in US-Iran talks could potentially suppress gold's sentiment-driven premium.
Amid lingering doubts about the Federal Reserve's policy independence and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, gold's medium to long-term allocation value remains intact. In the short term, gold prices are more likely to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern, awaiting new directional cues from macroeconomic data and geopolitical signals.