Abstract

AerCap Holdings NV will report quarterly results on February 06, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles the latest company data and recent institutional commentary to frame expectations for revenue, margin trajectory, and adjusted EPS alongside the key business drivers that could steer the stock’s near-term reaction.

Market Forecast

Consensus tracking for AerCap Holdings NV points to a current-quarter revenue estimate of $2.07 billion, implying a year-over-year increase of 5.57%. Forecasts also indicate an EBIT estimate of $1.10 billion with a projected year-over-year increase of 6.19%, and an EPS estimate of $3.36 with a projected year-over-year increase of 30.53%. The company does not provide a formal gross margin target in its outlook, and consensus has not explicitly broken out a net profit margin figure for this quarter; adjusted EPS growth is expected to outpace revenue growth, suggesting operating leverage as lease yields and asset sale gains normalize year-over-year.

Management disclosure of segment composition indicates the core leasing business remains the primary revenue driver, while aircraft asset sales and services contribute a smaller but meaningful share that can introduce quarter-to-quarter variability. The leasing segment appears positioned for steady growth supported by robust demand for new-technology narrowbodies, with the most promising area tied to incremental placements and deliveries from existing and newly acquired A320neo-family order positions, which management and sell-side commentary highlight as an opportunity for above-trend lease-rate factors.

Last Quarter Review

AerCap Holdings NV’s last reported quarter delivered revenue of $2.31 billion, a gross profit margin of 67.16%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $1.22 billion, a net profit margin of 52.66%, and adjusted EPS of $4.97, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 106.22%. Net profit attributable to the parent company decreased sequentially by 3.45%, while revenue significantly exceeded the prior consensus and benefited from solid lease income and higher-than-anticipated asset sale proceeds.

A key financial highlight was the strong adjusted EPS print relative to expectations, driven by operating efficiency and favorable lease economics that offset quarterly fluctuations. Main business performance was led by the leasing segment, which generated $1.89 billion in revenue; asset sales contributed $0.33 billion and other activities contributed $0.08 billion, illustrating a diversified but lease-centric revenue base with the core franchise maintaining momentum year-over-year.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Leasing and Core Operating Income

The leasing franchise remains the fulcrum for this quarter’s results, with consensus expecting revenue of $2.07 billion and an EBIT estimate of $1.10 billion. The anticipated 5.57% revenue growth alongside 6.19% EBIT growth suggests operating leverage from disciplined asset deployment and pricing, even as delivery schedules and maintenance events can shift quarterly run-rates. Lease rate factors have been supported by tight supply-demand dynamics sopportive dynamics and ongoing constraints in OEM output for certain narrowbody types, underpinning healthy placement economics for new-technology aircraft.

The degree to which lease yields and utilization hold or improve sequentially will shape how much of the top-line growth translates into EPS. With last quarter’s gross margin at 67.16% and net margin at 52.66%, investors will watch for stability in margin structure as the mix of lease income versus asset sales normalizes back toward the core leasing stream. On the cost side, funding costs and the trajectory of benchmark rates relative to AerCap Holdings NV’s hedging and liability structure will be important to sustain EBIT expansion in line with revenue growth. Any incremental general and administrative expense tied to pipeline growth or transaction activity could dampen margin expansion, but the current EPS estimate of $3.36 implies continued discipline around operating expenses and capital allocation.

Most Promising Growth Vector: New-Technology Narrowbody Order Book and Placements

The most prominent growth opportunity remains the expansion and deployment of new-technology narrowbodies, particularly A320neo-family aircraft. Recent commentary from institutions highlights that AerCap Holdings NV has opportunistically acquired incremental order positions on attractive terms and continues to place these aircraft into a market that favors lessors due to supply constraints. This supports a scenario where revenue growth and EPS expansion can persist even as asset sale gains normalize, because lease rate factors and initial yields on placements have been resilient.

Execution risks largely revolve around OEM delivery timing, lessee credit quality, and the cadence of redeliveries and transitions that can temporarily elevate downtime or maintenance-related costs. However, the company’s scale, customer breadth, and demonstrated ability to recycle and re-lease assets mitigate concentration risks. If placements progress in line with plans and lease economics remain favorable, this vector can underpin both revenue growth and margin defensibility in the coming quarters.

Stock Price Sensitivities: Asset Sale Mix, Financing Costs, and Delivery Cadence

The stock’s near-term reaction is likely to be sensitive to the mix of asset sale gains relative to pure lease income. Last quarter’s outperformance included a meaningful contribution from sales, and if this quarter’s asset sale activity is lighter, headline revenue could skew closer to the core leasing run-rate. Investors will parse how much of adjusted EPS is driven by recurring leasing as opposed to transactional items; cleaner lease-driven results would typically be viewed as higher quality, even if top-line looks modestly lower than a sale-heavy quarter.

Funding costs are another key variable. While the company has historically managed its liability profile prudently, the absolute level and shape of rates influence net interest margins and, by extension, net profit margin. Any progress on refinancing at tighter spreads, extension of maturities, or steps to reduce leverage would be supportive for the EPS bridge implied by consensus. Finally, OEM delivery cadence and shop visit timing can swing utilization and maintenance expense quarter-to-quarter; stable delivery flow and high utilization would reinforce the projected EBIT growth of 6.19% and strengthen the case for EPS to track near the $3.36 estimate.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent institutional commentary skews bullish. Within the latest six-month window, one January commentary initiates coverage with a Buy rating and a price target of $159.00, citing the company’s capacity to work with aircraft manufacturers to expand its order book without overpaying and its lower-than-required leverage that preserves flexibility for opportunistic deals. This view emphasizes supply-demand dynamics that currently favor lessors and points to adjusted EPS potential of $15.41 for 2026 and $16.72 for 2027, implying confidence in sustained earnings power beyond the near-term quarter.

Given this backdrop, the prevailing institutional stance supports upside risk to medium-term EPS if AerCap Holdings NV executes on incremental new-technology aircraft placements and maintains disciplined capital deployment. The bullish majority underscores three themes that matter for this report and near-term trading: the durability of lease yields amid tight aircraft supply, the advantage conferred by scale and balance sheet strength when sourcing attractive assets, and the flexibility to pivot between lease-driven growth and capital recycling through asset sales without compromising net margin. As this quarter’s revenue is projected to rise by 5.57% with EPS growth expected to outpace revenue, the consensus view anticipates that operating leverage can be preserved, setting a constructive tone ahead of the February 06, 2026 Pre-Market release.