Abstract

Technipfmc Plc will report fourth-quarter results on February 19, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes consensus projections for revenue, margins, GAAP net income and adjusted EPS, reviews last quarter’s results, and outlines key drivers and risks heading into the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of $2.53 billion, adjusted EPS of $0.51, and EBIT of $318.16 million, implying year-over-year growth of 10.01% for revenue, 43.89% for adjusted EPS, and 27.78% for EBIT. Margins are expected to improve modestly; the company exited last quarter with a gross margin of 22.81% and a net margin of 11.70%, which set a higher base for sequential performance. The company’s revenue mix remains anchored by Services at $1.56 billion, Products at $1.01 billion, and Leasing and Other at $0.08 million, with Services continuing to benefit from offshore project execution and aftermarket activity.

The most promising business remains Services, which contributed $1.56 billion last quarter and is expected to capture a greater share of backlog conversion as offshore installation campaigns seasonally peak; Products at $1.01 billion should remain stable on subsea hardware shipments.

Last Quarter Review

Technipfmc Plc delivered revenue of $2.65 billion, a gross margin of 22.81%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $0.31 billion, a net margin of 11.70%, and adjusted EPS of $0.75, with revenue up 12.73% year over year and adjusted EPS up 17.19% year over year. Quarter-on-quarter, GAAP net income increased by 14.92%, supported by solid execution and pricing resilience across subsea contracts.

Operationally, the quarter showed robust backlog conversion and disciplined cost control, which supported margin expansion and cash generation. By business, Services generated $1.56 billion, Products contributed $1.01 billion, and Leasing and Other added $0.08 million; Services remained the primary growth engine, buoyed by installation, life-of-field services, and aftermarket demand.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business momentum into year-end

Services is positioned to lead growth again this quarter, given its direct linkage to activity levels in subsea installation and life-of-field work. The company’s prior-quarter gross margin of 22.81% provides a supportive baseline, and the operating leverage inherent in Services typically manifests when offshore campaigns reach peak execution windows. With estimated revenue at $2.53 billion and EBIT at $318.16 million, the implied operating profile suggests stability in conversion despite normal seasonal weather risk that can occasionally push offshore days into subsequent periods. The mix of higher-margin aftermarket and installation work remains a favorable tailwind for the Services line.

Gross margin durability this quarter will depend on schedule performance and vessel utilization. If execution is smooth and weather permits planned vessel days, margin should hold near last quarter’s level or tick up, consistent with the 27.78% EBIT year-over-year growth implied by the forecast. The pricing backdrop on newer awards, combined with targeted cost efficiencies, should offset input cost variability. Any slippage in offshore days would most likely defer, rather than erase, contribution given the contracted nature of the backlog.

Net margin trajectory will be shaped by operating discipline and a relatively benign interest and tax environment compared with last year. The company exited last quarter with an 11.70% net margin, and consensus points to a year-over-year expansion in adjusted EPS to $0.51, up 43.89%. This EPS cadence is consistent with mix shift toward Services and improving operating leverage as revenue scales.

Most promising segment and growth levers

Services stands out as the most promising segment for the current quarter, with last quarter’s $1.56 billion contribution underpinned by vessel activity, subsea installation campaigns, and life-of-field services. The forecasted company-level revenue growth of 10.01% year over year aligns with continued project execution and aftermarket throughput. As schedule density improves in late-year windows, Services can carry disproportionately higher contribution margins relative to Products.

Products at $1.01 billion last quarter remains strategically important as it feeds Services with installed base growth, but near-term growth likely moderates as the delivery profile normalizes after strong prior shipments. The interplay between Products shipments and Services execution is central; successful hardware deliveries create future aftermarket and intervention opportunities, a virtuous cycle that supports sustained Services revenue growth. Leasing and Other is comparatively small at $0.08 million and should be a minimal driver of quarter-to-quarter variance.

Looking ahead, upside to the quarter could emerge from better-than-expected vessel utilization, accelerated installation milestones, and resilient aftermarket pricing. Risks to the upside case include weather disruptions that defer offshore days, supplier delivery timing that impacts critical-path installations, and potential currency translation effects on international operations. Given the contracted backlog and visibility into campaigns, these risks typically influence phasing rather than the ultimate revenue capture.

Key factors likely to influence the stock this quarter

Investors will focus on whether adjusted EPS tracks toward the $0.51 estimate and whether EBIT expansion of 27.78% year over year is reflected in margin commentary. Any update on backlog conversion pace and book-to-bill for the quarter can sway sentiment, as it informs the durability of revenue growth into the next fiscal year. Clarity around vessel availability, execution days achieved versus plan, and the share of higher-margin aftermarket within Services will be watched as leading indicators for margin resilience.

Management’s guidance tone on revenue and margin for the next quarter will be an important catalyst. If commentary signals sustained gross margin near or above the 22.81% level, the market may extrapolate stronger operating leverage into the first half. Conversely, color indicating schedule pushouts could prompt near-term volatility but would not necessarily alter the mid-term earnings power if backlog remains robust. Progress on operational efficiency programs and cost control will also be probed, as these underpin the path to consistent double-digit net margins.

Finally, the relationship between Products deliveries and Services attachment will be evaluated through disclosures on installed base growth and aftermarket capture rates. Evidence that hardware shipments continue to seed future service opportunities would reinforce the earnings quality narrative, where recurring and higher-margin aftermarket revenue complements project-based installation work. This dynamic is central to sustaining adjusted EPS growth above revenue growth, as indicated by the current 43.89% EPS year-over-year estimate against 10.01% revenue growth.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent notes tracked in the past six months, the majority view is bullish. Buy ratings were reiterated by Jefferies, Barclays, Citi, Piper Sandler, and RBC Capital, while one Hold was noted from Kepler Capital. This mix suggests a predominantly positive stance, with at least five bullish calls versus one neutral and no explicit bearish calls. Jefferies maintained a Buy, highlighting continued execution and visibility in subsea awards; Barclays reiterated Buy with an emphasis on margin improvement prospects and backlog conversion; Citi reaffirmed Buy citing supportive activity levels; Piper Sandler kept Buy pointing to aftermarket strength; and RBC Capital maintained Buy.

The bullish camp emphasizes three points heading into February 19, 2026: expected year-over-year revenue growth of 10.01% to $2.53 billion, the potential for EBIT growth of 27.78% to $318.16 million, and adjusted EPS growth of 43.89% to $0.51. Analysts argue that the Services-heavy mix and disciplined execution underpin a favorable margin profile that can sustain EPS outperformance versus revenue. The minority Hold voice points to timing risk in offshore schedules and normalizing Products deliveries, but it does not dispute the constructive setup for Services or the broader subsea cycle. Overall, the preponderance of Buy-rated commentary aligns with a constructive outlook for the quarter and supports the view that execution on schedule and margin could be the key positive surprise levers.