The annual National Day holiday is about to begin. Unlike previous years, this year's Mid-Autumn Festival falls within the National Day holiday period, resulting in a combined 8-day break. With only two trading days remaining before the A-share market closes (September 29 and 30), investors face a crucial decision: hold stocks or cash during the holiday?

Last year at this time, A-shares were experiencing the epic "924" rally with soaring market momentum. During the five trading days before the National Day holiday (September 24-30), the Shanghai Composite Index surged 21.37%. The market focus then was determining the optimal timing for profit-taking amid the sharp short-term gains.

In contrast, this year's market appears relatively subdued. From September 24-26, the Shanghai Composite Index rose only 0.16%. However, the STAR 50 and CSI 500 indices continue to reach new highs. Industry professionals indicate that investors face new choices as capital flows show diverging trends.

**Institutions: Post-Holiday Performance May Move Counter to Pre-Holiday Trends, Suggesting Holding Stocks**

Recently, multiple securities research departments have published reports analyzing A-share performance patterns around National Day holidays, seeking common trends and differences.

A research report from Huajin Securities shows that among the 15 National Day holidays since 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index rose within five trading days after 10 holiday periods ended. In 12 instances, post-holiday performance moved counter to pre-holiday trends - meaning if the Shanghai Composite rose (or fell) in the five trading days before the holiday, it would fall (or rise) in the five trading days after.

Based on historical statistical patterns, Huajin Securities notes that A-shares have shown sideways movement recently, with the Shanghai Composite gaining only 0.21% from September 22-26. The final two trading days before the holiday will likely maintain this consolidation trend, with potentially stronger performance post-holiday.

Regarding the "hold stocks or cash" question, Huajin Securities concludes that A-shares may continue short-term consolidation with limited holiday risks, suggesting investors can hold stocks through the break.

On September 28, a private fund investor stated they have decided to hold stocks through the holiday but will make final decisions based on market conditions over the next two days.

Founder Securities' research shows that over the past decade (2015-2024), major indices generally performed better post-holiday than pre-holiday around National Day periods. For example, the Shanghai Composite's median returns over the past decade were 0.06% and -1.45% for one and five trading days before National Day respectively, compared to 0.72% and 1.41% after the holiday. The ChiNext Index showed median returns of 0.56% and 0.47% for one and five pre-holiday trading days, versus 0.59% and 2.61% post-holiday.

From a sector perspective, most Shenwan Level-1 industries also gained in the short term after holidays. Technology, beauty care, environmental protection, pharmaceuticals, and automotive sectors showed median cumulative gains of 3.83%, 3.74%, 3.60%, 3.41%, and 3.38% respectively over five post-holiday trading days.

**Some Investors Sold After Last Year's Holiday - What About This Year?**

Looking back at last year's National Day holiday period, A-share market performance resembled a "roller coaster." From September 24-30 last year, the Shanghai Composite posted five consecutive gains with a cumulative 21.37% increase. The market focus was whether to take profits before the holiday or hold until after.

During the five consecutive trading days from October 8-14, 2024, the Shanghai Composite showed daily changes of +4.59%, -6.62%, +1.32%, -2.55%, and +2.07% respectively, reflecting intense capital competition. The market saw massive trading volumes with total transaction values of 3.48 trillion, 2.97 trillion, 2.16 trillion, 1.59 trillion, and 1.64 trillion yuan over the five post-holiday trading days. Meanwhile, net main fund flows were negative throughout, totaling 507.76 billion yuan in outflows over five days.

Last year's market performance already demonstrated many A-share investors' choice to sell concentrated positions shortly after the holiday.

A Guangzhou-based individual investor revealed they sold most positions on October 8 last year (the day after the holiday), having sold only small positions before the holiday. This year, however, they plan to hold through the holiday without selling.

From a market trend perspective, A-shares have already experienced modest corrections before this National Day holiday, without similar momentum to last year. According to Wind data, the Shanghai Composite has declined 0.77% in September. Conversely, the STAR 50 and CSI 500 indices continue ascending, both reaching their highest levels since 2022. Wind data shows the STAR 50 has gained 8.16% and CSI 500 has risen 2.80% in September.

A wealth management director at a securities firm branch noted that on September 18, when the Shanghai Composite touched 3899.96 points, markets briefly anticipated a breakthrough above 3900 points. However, strong intraday selling emerged with a 1.15% daily decline, avoiding the volatility seen last year with pre-holiday surges followed by post-holiday turbulence.

The professional emphasized that determining when and at what level the market correction will end requires close attention to capital flows. Blindly assuming corrections will end after the National Day holiday could present investment risks.