Abstract
Energy Transfer LP will report on February 17, 2026 Pre-Market; our preview consolidates the latest quarter’s results and forward estimates to frame revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS trajectories alongside segment dynamics and prevailing institutional views.Market Forecast
- For the current quarter, market consensus points to revenue of $23.66 billion, an EBIT estimate of $2.60 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.37, implying forecast year-over-year growth of 7.50% for revenue and a slight year-over-year decline of 2.97% for adjusted EPS; EBIT is projected to expand by 1.32% year over year. Gross profit margin and net profit margin forecasts were not explicitly provided. - Management’s main-business outlook suggests stabilized throughput across crude oil, refined products, and NGL systems with incremental uplift from fee-based contracts. The most promising segment is refined products, projected to generate $5.85 billion last quarter, indicating robust scale while benefiting from stable tariffs; year-over-year growth data was not available.Last Quarter Review
- In the previous quarter, Energy Transfer LP delivered revenue of $19.95 billion, a gross profit margin of 19.34%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of $1.02 billion, a net profit margin of 5.10%, and adjusted EPS of $0.28, with revenue and EPS both declining year over year by 3.94% and 12.50%, respectively. - Quarterly performance reflected resilient midstream cash flows despite commodity price normalization, with quarter-on-quarter net profit down 12.39% on seasonality and weaker liquids spreads. Main business contributions were led by refined products at $5.85 billion, crude oil at $5.30 billion, and NGLs at $4.29 billion; year-over-year growth by segment was not available.Current Quarter Outlook
Main business momentum
Energy Transfer LP’s core operations revolve around transport, storage, and logistics for crude oil, refined products, and NGLs. For this quarter, the market expects revenue to improve to $23.66 billion from $19.95 billion last quarter, consistent with typical seasonal strength and higher throughput assumptions embedded in consensus. Fee-based contracts across trunk pipelines and fractionation assets can support baseline cash generation, limiting sensitivity to spot commodity prices. The prior quarter’s 19.34% gross margin and 5.10% net margin set reference points for compression or expansion; with EBIT expected at $2.60 billion, modest margin stability is implied even if adjusted EPS is seen slightly down year over year.Contracted volumes and tariff escalators underpin the near-term revenue trajectory. The refined products and crude oil segments together contributed over half of last quarter’s revenue and are poised to benefit from steady end-market demand and regulated rate adjustments. On the other hand, any widening or tightening in NGL-to-crude spreads can move realized margins for the NGL and fractionation chains, influencing consolidated profitability. The quarter-over-quarter step-up in revenue implied by forecasts also suggests higher throughput, which may drive operating leverage if opex growth is contained.
Most promising growth engine
Within the portfolio, refined products displayed the largest revenue base last quarter at $5.85 billion, offering the clearest path to incremental growth via tariff-indexed rate increases and normalized seasonal demand. Stability in refined product consumption and inventory turnover in core U.S. markets supports volumes through major pipeline systems and terminals. Execution on debottlenecking and selective expansions can add incremental capacity at attractive returns, bolstering cash flows without heavy commodity exposure. While year-over-year growth data for this segment was not provided, its scale positions it to capture incremental upside as volumes recover from maintenance windows and as refined product demand normalizes.Crude oil transport remains a complementary driver, delivering $5.30 billion in revenue last quarter. It stands to benefit from stable U.S. production levels and basin-specific expansions that feed long-haul pipelines and terminals. If upstream activity remains resilient, crude volumes should help sustain utilization, while minimum volume commitments in contracts can partially shield against short-term declines. Together with refined products, these segments represent the primary base from which modest growth can be realized this quarter.
Key stock price swing factors this quarter
The stock may react primarily to deviations from the revenue and adjusted EPS estimates, given the forecast for $23.66 billion revenue and $0.37 adjusted EPS. A positive surprise in EBIT versus the $2.60 billion expectation could signal stronger operating leverage or higher throughput than modeled, reinforcing margin resilience against commodity variability. Conversely, if adjusted EPS underperforms given the modeled year-over-year dip, the market may read it as pressure from higher interest expense or narrower spreads in NGLs.Segment disclosures will be important. Investors will parse refined products and crude oil volume and tariff updates, as these segments drove $11.15 billion of last quarter’s revenue combined. Any commentary on project timelines, in-service dates, or incremental capacity could recalibrate forward models. Balance sheet trends also matter: leverage and distribution coverage are closely watched, and incremental clarity on capital allocation can influence valuation multiples even when GAAP net margins hover near the prior quarter’s 5.10%.