On September 24 last year, the A-share market launched a historic rally driven by a series of policy measures. As the first anniversary of the "924 rally" approaches, looking back over the past year, A-share market performance has continued to be encouraging.
Wind data shows that as of the close on September 19, 2025, major A-share indices have achieved substantial gains since the "924 rally" began, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising approximately 39% cumulatively and the ChiNext Index surging about 102%. Over 3,000 individual stocks across the market have gained more than 50%, with over 1,400 stocks rising more than 100%. The latest total market capitalization of A-shares reached 104 trillion yuan. (Past index performance does not predict future performance; markets carry risks and investment requires caution)
Wang Li, senior macro strategy researcher at Great Wall Fund, analyzed that this nearly year-long rally has been driven by three key factors. First, policy support provided positive backing. The central bank launched multiple structural monetary policy tools, while the securities regulator activated the market through guiding long-term capital inflows, optimizing M&A mechanisms, and encouraging share buybacks by listed companies. Central Huijin significantly increased ETF holdings, effectively stabilizing market sentiment.
Second, the technology sector achieved rapid breakthroughs. Since late last year, China has successively welcomed technological advances and industrial opportunities in artificial intelligence, robotics, semiconductors, defense, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors. Global competitiveness has gradually improved, with new growth drivers continuously accumulating and releasing sector prosperity. This development trend in technology industries exceeded market expectations, making AI, robotics and other tech sectors among the important market directions this year.
Third, market risk appetite significantly recovered. Since late September last year, investor sentiment turned positive, market trading activity markedly increased, various thematic investment opportunities rotated orderly, and capital continued flowing in, providing support for maintaining market momentum.
Meanwhile, the trend of household deposits flowing into the A-share market has gradually emerged. According to Wind statistics, in October 2024, new A-share account openings at the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 6.847 million, approaching the high levels of 2015. In July this year, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan in a single month, the second-highest value since data records began in 2015, only behind February's 2.83 trillion yuan this year.
Regarding current A-share market characteristics, Wang Li believes the market has undergone significant changes in three aspects: valuation, liquidity, and investor structure.
In terms of valuation, the Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-earnings ratio has risen from around 12 times to the current 16.4 times, placing it at the 85.9% percentile since 2010, indicating relatively sufficient valuation recovery.
Regarding liquidity, before the "924 rally" began, the market was generally in a stock game or even shrinking volume state, while current A-share trading volume has consistently maintained above 2 trillion yuan, with active overall trading sentiment.
"Changes in investor structure are equally crucial," Wang Li pointed out. "Before late September last year, ETFs and insurance were the main sources of incremental capital, with the market showing large-cap blue-chip style. In the first half of this year, insurance and speculative capital became the main increments, forming a dumbbell-style market of small-micro caps plus dividends (mainly banks). Recently, as market profit effects gradually emerged, institutional-style funds including public and private funds entered significantly, making the market more focused on prosperity directions."
However, with the Federal Reserve rate cut "shoe dropping," some investors chose to take profits, and indices have retreated somewhat recently. Regarding future market space, Wang Li also provided analytical judgment. He stated that China's "15th Five-Year Plan" will soon begin formulation, and Federal Reserve rate cuts have provided more operational space for China's macroeconomic policies. A series of growth-stabilizing policy measures are expected to be introduced in the fourth quarter, which can both provide guarantees for this year's economic operations and lay foundations for smooth economic development next year.
Looking at possible main policy directions, first is promoting "national unified market" construction and continuously optimizing business environments for enterprises; second is intensifying fiscal policy efforts and promoting the implementation of quasi-fiscal tools; third is innovating and utilizing structural monetary policy tools; fourth is introducing more consumption-promoting and domestic demand-expanding measures to further stimulate domestic market potential.
Additionally, on the demand side, China's industrial chain is accelerating overseas expansion and deeply integrating with global supply chain systems; on the supply side, anti-involution policies continue optimizing industry competitive ecosystems. Against this backdrop, corporate earnings are expected to further recover. Therefore, Wang Li believes the "924 rally" can be viewed as a key market turning point, with the market expected to achieve long-term positive performance. From a style perspective, under the dual effects of industrial development and policy support, technology growth style is expected to be relatively favorable going forward.