Canadian PM Carney's Landmark Speech: Rules-Based Order is Dead, Middle Powers Must Unite Against Coercion

Deep News
Jan 21

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on the 20th that Canada strongly opposes the United States imposing tariffs to gain leverage over Greenland. Carney indicated that recently, some major powers have been using tariffs as a tool for pressure and financial infrastructure as an instrument of coercion. He pointed out that the institutional framework for collective problem-solving, including the World Trade Organization and the United Nations, is under threat.

Media reports described Carney's speech as strongly worded, serving as a warning that middle powers must awaken.

He bluntly stated that the "rules-based international order established after World War II is dying," and the world has entered an era of great power zero-sum games. Carney warned that in this environment, "'hegemonic powers' can do as they please, while the weak can only endure suffering."

In his speech, Carney called on middle powers worldwide to abandon the illusion that "'compliance' can buy security" and instead take joint action to resist coercion from "hegemonic powers." He emphasized that in the face of hegemonic behavior that weaponizes trade, finance, and supply chains, middle powers must establish new alliance structures, "because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu."

This statement comes against a highly sensitive backdrop. Recently, US President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on allies and once again absurdly proposed "buying Greenland," even blatantly releasing a map showing the American flag covering Greenland and Canada.

According to reports, Trump posted images on social media early on the 20th: one showing him holding an American flag on Greenland, with US Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio standing behind him, next to a sign reading "Greenland becomes US territory in 2026." Trump posted another image the same day: a meeting with European leaders in the Oval Office, with a map displayed behind them where, besides the continental US, Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela were all covered by the American flag.

Carney's remarks have been widely interpreted by the market as a rational recalibration of Canada's foreign and economic strategy—shifting from sole reliance on an increasingly uncertain traditional ally (the United States) towards seeking greater strategic autonomy and globalized cooperation.

Rejecting "Living a Lie" Carney began his speech by quoting the ancient Greek historian Thucydides and drawing on the parable of the "greengrocer" by Czech politician Václav Havel, offering a profound critique of the hypocrisy in current international relations. "For decades, countries like Canada prospered under the so-called rules-based international order... We knew this story was partly false, that hegemonic powers would exempt themselves when convenient, that trade rules were enforced asymmetrically," Carney said, "But that bargain is no longer working."

He noted that the world is in a state of "rupture" rather than "transition." Over the past two decades, financial, health, and geopolitical crises have exposed the risks of extreme global integration. More importantly, certain major powers have begun to "use economic integration as a weapon, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as a tool of coercion, and supply chains as exploitable vulnerabilities." Carney warned governments and businesses against continuing to "live a lie"—pretending to abide by rules they know are ineffective simply to avoid trouble. "When integration becomes the source of your subordinate status, you cannot live the lie of mutual benefit through integration," he stated bluntly, "It is time to take down the sign from the window."

"If We're Not at the Table, We're on the Menu" Confronted with the current situation, Carney proposed a pragmatic new path for middle powers: not to try building higher walls, but to forge more ambitious alliances. He termed this strategy "variable geometry," meaning forming different coalitions based on shared values and interests for different issues. "Middle powers must act in concert," Carney declared, leaving this resonant phrase, "because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu."

He analyzed that certain major powers currently have the capital to "go it alone," using their market size and military capabilities to dictate terms. But if middle powers only engage in bilateral negotiations with a hegemonic power, they are "negotiating from a position of weakness," ultimately forced to accept concessions or even compete with each other to curry favor. "This is not sovereignty. This is performing sovereignty while accepting subordination," Carney said.

Shifting to "Value-Based Realism" To address this new reality, Carney announced that Canada is fundamentally shifting its strategic posture towards adopting "value-based realism." This means Canada will no longer passively wait for the world to improve but will proactively build hard power and diversify its network of relationships. On economic and defense fronts, Carney listed a series of significant reform measures:

Defense Upgrade: Committing to double defense spending by the end of the decade, investing in submarines, over-the-horizon radar, and joining the EU's defense procurement arrangement (Safehold).

Trade Diversification: Canada has recently established new strategic partnerships with China and Qatar and is negotiating free trade agreements with India, ASEAN, Thailand, the Philippines, and Mercosur.

Critical Resources: Rapidly advancing $1 trillion in investments in the energy, artificial intelligence (AI), and critical minerals sectors.

According to reports, from January 14-17, 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Carney paid an official visit to China at the invitation. During the visit, the two sides reached broad consensus on deepening economic and trade cooperation, signed the China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap, and formed preliminary joint arrangements for handling bilateral trade issues.

Carney specifically mentioned that Canada is cooperating with like-minded democratic countries in the AI field to ensure it is not ultimately forced to "choose between a hegemon and a hyperscaler."

Implicit Criticism of Hegemonic Coercion Although Carney did not directly name US President Trump in his speech, his references to "American hegemony" and his responses to specific geopolitical events clearly pointed to pressure from the southern neighbor.

Addressing Trump's sovereignty claims over Greenland and related tariff threats, Carney took a firm stance: "On Arctic sovereignty, we stand firmly with Greenland and Denmark... Canada strongly opposes tariffs imposed over the Greenland issue." He simultaneously reaffirmed that Canada's commitment to NATO's Article 5 (collective defense) is "unshakable."

Carney called on middle powers to stop applying double standards to allies and adversaries. "When middle powers criticize economic intimidation from one direction but remain silent about intimidation from another, we are hanging that sign in the window," he said, alluding to self-deception.

Concluding his speech, Carney emphasized that the old order will not return and nostalgia is not a strategy. He called on countries to acknowledge reality and earn the right to take principled stands by building domestic economic strength and international diversification. "This is Canada's path... This path is open to any country willing to walk it with us."

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