Abstract

ArcelorMittal SA will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 05, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview consolidates company guidance, recent performance, and institutional estimates to frame expectations on revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS through year-over-year comparisons and business mix dynamics.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company-linked projections point to fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of USD 15.40 billion, with forecast adjusted EPS of USD 0.57 and EBIT of USD 0.77 billion; year-over-year, revenue growth is expected at 0.52%, EPS at -12.37%, and EBIT at 2.33%. The market anticipates stable gross profitability around recent levels and net profitability tracking mid-single digit margins, with emphasis on cost normalization against iron ore and energy inputs. Flat products are expected to remain the primary revenue driver, while long products and tubular products provide mix resilience; flat products contributed USD 17.17 billion in the prior quarter, long products USD 6.41 billion, tubular products USD 0.97 billion, mining USD 0.66 billion, and other USD 5.51 billion. The most promising segment near-term is flat products, where stabilizing steel spreads and disciplined capacity utilization support incremental volume and price realization; revenue is anchored by the segment’s scale, although year-over-year growth is modest from a high base.

Last Quarter Review

ArcelorMittal SA’s prior quarter delivered revenue of USD 15.66 billion, a gross profit margin of 8.79%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 0.38 billion, a net profit margin of 2.41%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.62; year-over-year, revenue increased by 3.03%, EPS decreased by 1.59%, and EBIT was USD 0.77 billion. The company posted a sequential contraction in net profit with quarter-on-quarter net profit down 78.97%, reflecting softer spreads and non-operational factors, while still beating revenue and EPS expectations versus pre-released consensus. Main business highlights show flat products leading with USD 17.17 billion, followed by long products at USD 6.41 billion, tubular products at USD 0.97 billion, mining at USD 0.66 billion, and other businesses at USD 5.51 billion; the mix underscores exposure to sheet markets and diversified demand streams.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main Business: Flat Products

Flat products command the largest share of ArcelorMittal SA’s revenue and are central to earnings sensitivity this quarter. Price trends for hot-rolled coil and coated sheet into automotive, appliance, and construction end-markets have stabilized, narrowing the volatility seen earlier in 2025. Volumes are underpinned by order books normalizing post-inventory destocking, although customer discipline keeps lead times conservative. Cost deflation from coking coal and iron ore versus mid-2025 peaks is only partially flowing through given lagged contract structures, suggesting margins could hold close to the last quarter’s 8.79% gross margin framework. Management’s operating discipline around capacity deployment, especially in Europe and Brazil, should limit downside as spreads track seasonal demand softness into late winter. The key watch-point is contract renewals with automotive customers, where hedged raw materials and alloy surcharges will shape incremental margin trajectory.

Most Promising Business: Tubular and Value-Added Mix

Tubular products, while smaller at USD 0.97 billion last quarter, are positioned to benefit from resilient energy capital spending and pipeline, OCTG, and specialty tube demand. The mix shift toward value-added grades and non-commoditized specifications can improve unit margins even in a flat pricing environment. Capacity utilization in tubular lines is less volatile, and downstream project timelines provide steadier order conversion relative to sheet. The commercial strategy emphasizes customer proximity and shorter lead times, which should support revenue continuity through February–March shipping windows. If steel spreads hold and logistics costs continue to normalize, tubular products can incrementally uplift consolidated EBIT beyond the USD 0.77 billion forecast, acting as a margin lever when flat products are range-bound.

Stock Price Drivers: Margins, Energy Inputs, and Execution

The stock’s near-term trajectory hinges on realized margins versus the 8.79% gross margin benchmark and net margin proximity to 2.41%. Input costs—particularly iron ore, coking coal, and regional energy pricing—will determine spread capture, with any surprise cost relief translating quickly into quarterly EBIT variance. Operational execution remains vital: achieving order fulfillment within lead-time commitments and sustaining utilization discipline can mitigate downside risk to EPS, where consensus sits at USD 0.57. Investors will parse the earnings call for commentary on European blast furnace run-rates, Brazilian flat product pricing, and U.S. downstream exposure via value-added offerings. Progress on working capital normalization and cash generation will also be key, given the prior quarter’s steep quarter-on-quarter net profit drop of 78.97%, which heightened sensitivity to earnings quality as opposed to headline revenue growth.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the majority stance is cautiously bullish, citing improving operational discipline and a more balanced supply-demand setup into early 2026. Analysts point to stabilizing EBITDA trends and manageable leverage, with some highlighting prospective uplift from value-added product mix and tubular demand continuity. Reports emphasize that consensus EPS of USD 0.57 and revenue of USD 15.40 billion appear achievable if spreads remain steady, and that the EBIT forecast of USD 0.77 billion aligns with normalized margins. Well-known brokerages flag the risk of Europe-specific energy and carbon cost headwinds but still tilt positive on execution and cash generation into the first half of 2026. The prevailing view concludes that while earnings growth is constrained year-over-year for EPS at -12.37%, operational delivery against these expectations could support the equity near term.