Chinese A-shares saw a divergence in major indices today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.39% after a midday recovery, while the ChiNext Index fell over 1%, and the CPO theme weakened. Catalyzed by price increases, themes related to rare metals such as tungsten and rare earths collectively surged, with more than ten stocks hitting the daily limit-up. The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.51 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading session.
Since the beginning of 2026, "price increases" have become the most central trading theme in the capital markets. This trend is no longer confined to a single sector but has permeated various industries, with various assets experiencing price hikes becoming the focus of market trading. According to statistics from Industrial Securities, among the top 30 performing thematic indices year-to-date, 25 are related to the logic of price increases. Simultaneously, the scope of these price hikes continues to expand, extending from the non-ferrous metals sector to more areas such as oil and gas, chemicals, building materials, and technology. Looking ahead for the full year, "price increases" are not only a direct reflection of industry prosperity but also a core factor driving the diffusion of market styles, and are expected to be a persistent investment theme throughout the year. This logic warrants continued close attention.
The Steel ETF continued its strong performance today, accumulating a gain of 10.64% for the week. The steel sector's notable performance this week was primarily catalyzed by factors on both the supply and demand sides. On the demand side, anticipated favorable policies for the property market in key cities are expected to solidify demand expectations. On the supply side, there are expectations of contraction in 2026, with iron ore having room for price concessions; the industry is expected to accelerate into a phase of survival of the fittest. On February 8th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Steel Industry Standard Conditions (2025 Edition)," a functional guiding document for the industry. On February 26th, the Ministry publicized the first list of enterprises conforming to these conditions. Relevant departments are expected to持续推进 the hierarchical and classified management of steel enterprises, comprehensively conduct classification evaluations, and implement a three-tier management system (leading standard enterprises, standard enterprises, and non-conforming enterprises) to guide the aggregation of resource elements towards superior enterprises. Furthermore, as the period around the "Two Sessions" approaches, the likelihood of supply constraints increases.
The steel sector currently may be a bottom-tier sector with high elasticity and expectation gaps. After a four-year downturn, industry expectations are low; the inventory buildup during this year's winter storage has been the weakest in recent years, and the total inventory level of the five major steel products is also at a multi-year low, reflecting cautious and pessimistic sentiment within the industry. The bottom may imply that price adjustments have been relatively thorough; with low inventory levels, any catalyst on supply or demand could give steel prices upward elasticity. Recent consecutive price increases for steel in Southeast Asia have already reflected some positive signals. Investors can monitor the market's only Steel ETF (515210).
Today, driven by catalysts from price increases, sectors involving rare metals like tungsten and rare earths collectively surged, with stocks such as China Tungsten and High-tech, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and China Rare Metals hitting new all-time highs. The rare metals sector has performed exceptionally strongly this year, propelled by four main factors.
First, soaring spot prices have been the direct trigger, with prices rising across the industrial chain and companies proactively adjusting prices. iFinD data shows that as of February 25th, the price of tungsten iron in Shanghai's spot market had surged to 1.0225 million yuan per ton. This represents a 3.7-fold increase compared to the same period last year (216,800 yuan/ton).
Second, rigid tightening on the supply side, coupled with a lack of inventory buffer, forms the core foundation of the current trend. Rare metals are subject to multiple constraints including mining quotas, environmental regulations, and export controls, making rapid capacity expansion difficult: domestic controls on tungsten and rare earth mining volumes continue a tight pattern, small and medium-sized mines are gradually exiting, and overseas ore grades are declining with slow capacity recovery. Even minor supply-side disruptions can rapidly push prices higher.
Third, exploding demand from emerging industries, driven by both traditional and new sectors, is continuously widening the supply-demand gap. The demand structure for rare metals is upgrading, no longer reliant solely on traditional industries: demand for tungsten has surged in areas like photovoltaic tungsten wire and high-purity tungsten for semiconductors, with the penetration rate of PV tungsten wire expected to exceed 80% in 2026; rare earths are tied to sectors like new energy vehicles, wind power, and robotics, where usage per NEV is multiples that of traditional vehicles, leading downstream magnetic material firms to continuously replenish inventories; simultaneously, demand from traditional infrastructure and machinery industries is steadily recovering, providing a floor for prices.
Fourth, the global reassessment of critical mineral strategies,叠加 geopolitical maneuvering, has imparted a "security premium" to these commodities. Recently, countries worldwide have increased efforts to secure critical mineral resources. The US launched an upgraded version of its critical mineral strategy, FORGE, on February 2nd, initiating a "Gold Reserve Plan" to build strategic reserves and proposing joint G7 tariffs on rare earths, heightening global supply chain security concerns. Domestically, there is a continuous strengthening of strategic resource control and promotion of supply chain autonomy. Rare metals are transitioning from ordinary industrial commodities to strategic security assets, leading to a reconstruction of their valuation logic. Both prices and stock prices are undergoing a reassessment, which is a new logic distinguishing this rally from previous cyclical upswings.
The core characteristic of the Mining ETF (561330) is its focus on companies owning non-ferrous metal mineral resources, anchoring the upstream segments like mining. The profits of such companies are typically highly correlated with metal prices. Its allocation is relatively balanced: approximately 30% in copper, 15% in gold, and around 10% each in rare earths, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, among others. A balanced allocation through this index may capture upside opportunities across different sub-sectors of the non-ferrous metals space. For those looking to gain exposure to the entire non-ferrous sector with one instrument, the Mining ETF (561330) is a quality choice.
The Coal ETF (515220) rose significantly by 2.82% today. Guosheng Securities pointed out that during the Spring Festival holiday, while some large coal mines maintained normal production, most private coal mines halted operations for the holiday, bringing the domestic coal market to a near-standstill. However, amid ongoing disruptions from news of production cuts in Indonesia, overseas coal prices continued their upward trend, further widening the price gap with domestic prices. Against this backdrop, after the holiday, some end-users are expected to turn to domestic coal purchases, driving a rapid increase in domestic prices.
Under the advancement of "anti-overcapacity" policies, the coal industry is expected to continue benefiting. Policies regarding capacity verification, increases, exits, and Inner Mongolia disaster治理 projects are anticipated to be rolled out gradually this year, potentially leading to a reduction in coal supply. The specific impact depends on the final policy details; if they exceed market expectations, coal prices could have significant upward potential.
From the perspective of rising commodity prices, trends such as loose liquidity, frequent geopolitical disturbances, and the rise of resource nationalism are expected to persist. Strong commodity performance could drive valuation expansion for the coal sector. From the angle of品种比较 and rotation, after significant gains from precious metals to non-ferrous metals, some commodities may be at relatively high levels, while the valuation of the ferrous sector remains relatively low. Some capital might rotate from "high to low," potentially leading to a catch-up rally for the coal industry. Interested investors can monitor the market's only Coal ETF (515220).
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The formation of a MACD golden cross signal indicates positive momentum for these stocks.